内需扩大、消费习惯与贸易顺差  

On the Expansion of Domestic Demand,Consumption Habit and Trade Surplus

作　　者：项松林[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《当代财经》2011年第9期94-103,共10页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金项目"‘十二五’时期苏南率先基本实现现代化重点与难点研究"(10JD001);江苏省社科联研究项目"后危机时期江苏开放型经济的发展对策研究"(10-B-01)

摘　　要：通过在消费习惯的基础上,建立最优消费的跨时贸易理论模型,然后运用GMM、2S-2SLS对中国在1978-2009年间的消费习惯和对外贸易进行实证分析,结论表明:消费者的消费习惯在国际贸易中起重要的作用,习惯降低了持久性收入对跨时贸易的影响,延长了对外贸易顺差持续时间。消费习惯的影响,东部最低、中部次之,西部最大。消费习惯在降低净产出与贸易顺差负相关关系的同时,又扩大了前期贸易余额与贸易顺差的正相关关系。影响贸易顺差的因素很多,在不考虑其它因素影响下,消费习惯也是中国贸易顺差快速增加的重要原因。By establishing an intertemporal trade theoretical model of optimal consumption based on formation of consumption habit, and adopting GMM estimator and two-step, two-stage least square estimator, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the consumption habit and foreign trade between 1978 and 2009 in china. The results show that the consumers＇ consumption habit plays an important role in international trade, such a habit would decrease the effects of permanent income on the intertemporal trade and extend the trade surplus periods. The impact of consumption habit is lowest in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and highest in the western region. While reducing the negative correlation between net outputs and trade surplus, the consumption habit has extended the positive correlation between the former trade balance and trade surplus. There are a number of factors affecting the trade surplus, if taking no effect of other factors into account, the consumption habit is also an important reason for the rapid growth of China＇s trade surplus.

关 键 词：消费习惯 跨时贸易 GMM分析 2S-2SLS分析 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]