大规模冰灾对输电系统可靠性的影响分析  

Influence of Large-scale Ice Disaster on Transmission System Reliability

作　　者：王建学[1] 张耀[1] 吴思[1] 孙羽[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学电气工程学院,陕西省西安市710049

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2011年第28期49-56,共8页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50807043;50777052)~~

摘　　要：大规模冰灾对输电系统带来多方面不利的影响,主要从可靠性的角度对其进行研究。根据气象建模理论,计算了风速、降雨速率和输电元件的载冰量。为分析元件故障率随冰灾的变化过程,采用了曲线拟合法获得载冰量和强迫停运率的数学关系。为反映在载冰量增加过程中输电元件发生损坏的随机性,提出了一种混合蒙特卡罗抽样法,来获得系统状态以及状态持续的时间。当元件处于正常状态时,使用状态抽样法判断各时刻元件是否发生故障;当元件发生故障时,使用状态持续时间抽样法获得元件修复持续时间。IEEERTS-79算例验证了所提方法的有效性。仿真结果分析表明,气象参数和地理环境等因素,特别是气象前进速度和输电线路的走向,将对输电系统的可靠性产生较大影响。Large-scale ice disaster has various negative effects on transmission system reliability. According to the weather model, wind speed, rainfall rate and ice load of transmission lines were calculated. In order to analyze the variation of forced outage rate （FOR） in the ice disaster, the relation between ice load and FOR was obtained by curve fitting. For reflecting the stochastic failure of transmission components in the process of ice load increase, a new mixed Monte Carlo simulation method was presented. When components are in the normal state, state sampling is used to judge whether fault occurs on components. When components fail, state duration sampling is used to calculate repair duration time. Simulation of the IEEE RTS-79 system demonstrates that the proposed method is effective. This simulation result also shows that weather parameters and geographical environment may have great influence on transmission system reliability, especially weather moving speed and alignment of transmission lines.

关 键 词：冰灾 蒙特卡罗模拟 可靠性评估 载冰量 强迫停运率 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]