基于分形特征的输配电系统风险管理多目标分割模型  

Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Method for Transmission and Distribution System Based on Fractal Theory

作　　者：李存斌[1] 熊雪琴[1] 陈文俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《华东电力》2011年第9期1400-1404,共5页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71071054);华北电力大学"211工程"资助项目(X10012)~~

摘　　要：现有的风险研究多集中于对可识别的风险因素的量化和管理上,涉及复杂系统中风险的影响范围及控制力度的研究较少,而对输配电系统风险的研究几乎没有。采用混沌学的分形理论对输配电系统的复杂结构进行表述,并把这个系统分为3个等级,实行差别决策。引入分割多目标方法求解多个策略在这3个等级中的条件期望值,并进行了输配电系统风险管理的实例计算,结果与理性预期相符,说明分形理论与分割多目标方法的结合适用于输配电系统的风险决策。Currently risk researches mostly focus on the quantification and management of identifiable risk factors,while less attention has been attached to the studies involving influence range and control strength of risk in complex systems,and more unfortunately,the risk research for power transmission and distribution system has almost been ignored.In this paper,fractal theory was adopted to describe the complex structure of power transmission and distribution system,and the system was divided into three levels for distinctive risk decision.Then,the Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Method（PMRM） was introduced to calculate the conditional expectation value of several strategies in the three levels which was treated as decision-making basis for risk management.Finally,the method was applied to an empirical example and the calculations met with the rational expectations.The results indicate that the combination of fractal theory and PMRM can properly deal with the risk decision in power transmission and distribution system.

关 键 词：风险决策 分形理论 分割多目标方法 输配电系统 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学] TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]