基于SWOT法和层次分析法的能源发展战略研究  

Energy Development Strategy Based on SWOT Method and Analytical Hierarchy Process

作　　者：赵胜男[1] 崔胜辉[1] 林剑艺[1] 周健[1] 张雅京[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院城市环境与健康重点实验室,中国科学院城市环境研究所,厦门市城市代谢重点实验室,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2011年第9期189-194,共6页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71003090);厦门市科技计划项目(3502Z20101015)

摘　　要：针对能源发展战略分析中缺少定量分析的不足,将SWOT法与层次分析法结合起来建立一个完整的定性与定量分析相结合的系统框架,分析影响能源发展的关键因素并计算各因素权重,在此基础上确定能源发展战略,并以厦门市为例,进行案例分析。结果表明:在众多因素中,单位GDP能耗低、能源资源稀缺、能源进口关税不断下调、能源消费不断增长等是影响厦门市能源发展的关键因素,各自的权重值分别为0.141 0,0.145 1,0.046 9和0.353 3;厦门市应采取努力克服劣势、积极应对挑战保守型能源发展战略,即为实现能源的可持续发展,应把节能放在首位,努力提高能源利用效率,加快调整能源消费结构。SWOT法与层次分析法的有机结合可为能源发展战略研究提供一种新的尝试,也能为能源发展规划提供可靠的基础数据。In view of the lack of quantitative analysis in energy development strategy researches,SWOT method combined with analytical hierarchy process was used to establish a complete qualitative and quantitative analysis framework for analyzing and quantifying major factors influencing energy development and then determining the energy development strategy.Xiamen City,Fujian Province was taken as an example.Results showed that lower energy consumption per unit GDP,scarce energy resource,decreasing energy import tariffs and growing energy consumption were critical factors for the energy development with the weight respectively as 0.141 0,0.145 1,0.046 9 and 0.353 3.Therefore conservative type strategy which meant diligent overcoming its disadvantages and positive facing the challenges should be selected for its energy development.To realize the sustainable energy development,it was suggested to put energy conservation in the first place,strive to improve energy efficiency and speed up the adjustment of energy consumption structure.Organic combination between SWOT method and analytic hierarchy process would provide a new attempt for energy development strategy research,and also reliable basic data for energy development planning.

关 键 词：SWOT法 层次分析法 能源发展战略 厦门市 

分 类 号：X37[环境科学与工程—环境工程]