迭代反馈约束下的城市轨道交通客流预测分析  

Forecast and Analysis of Passenger Flow of Urban Rail Transit Under Iterative Feedback Constraints

作　　者：陈大伟[1] 肖为周[2] 李旭宏[1] 何流[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096 [2]苏州大学城市轨道交通学院,江苏苏州215021

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第8期99-103,共5页Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50708020)

摘　　要：在分析当前国内城市轨道交通客流预测存在问题的基础上,提出了基于迭代反馈约束的城市轨道交通客流预测模型框架和方法.在基础数据处理上,依据城市总体规划和轨道交通沿线控制性详细规划,通过协调总体与局部的开发强度,达到研究范围内城市人口和就业岗位的重新平衡.在模型方面,考虑到机动车车流对公交车运行的影响,对传统四阶段模型进行了改进,使机动车车流分配模型与交通分布模型及方式划分模型相互作用,迭代反馈,达到平衡收敛.以苏州市城市轨道交通2号线为例,采用迭代反馈模型对其客流进行了预测分析.计算结果表明,在3个目标年当模型迭代次数分别为7、9和10时,即符合收敛条件,满足精度要求.Based on the analyses of the existing problems in the forecast of passenger flow of urban rail transit in China, a forecast model framework and a method are proposed under the iterative feedback constraints. In the investigation, according to urban master planning and detailed regulatory planning along the railway, the basic data is processed to regain the balance between the population and the employment opportunities in the research by coordinating the development intensities of the whole and the local. Then, by taking into consideration the impact of vehicle flow on buses, the traditional four-stage model is improved to make motor vehicle flow assignment model, traffic distribution model and mode split model interact with each other and implement iterative feedback. As a result, the balance convergence is achieved. Finally, the proposed forecast model was testified based on the passenger flow in Suzhou Rail Transit Line 2. The results show that, when the iterative times for three particular years respectively reach 7, 9 and 10, the convergence conditions and the accuracy requirement are both met.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 客流预测 迭代反馈 四阶段模型 土地利用 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]