旱灾农业损失动态评估模型及灌溉效益评估研究  

Dynamic Evaluation Model of Agricultural Loss of Drought Disaster and Assessment of Irrigation Benefit

作　　者：刘代勇[1] 梁忠民[1] 易知之[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2011年第5期36-39,62,共5页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目;水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(200901022);云南省科技计划项目(2010CA013)

摘　　要：旱灾是造成农业生产损失的第一大自然灾害,旱灾损失评估是抗旱减灾工作的重要组成内容。基于简化的Jensen公式,建立旱灾农业损失动态评估模型,结合灌溉方案,对采取灌溉措施后的抗旱效益进行评估。选取徐州市丰县为研究区域,以2002年6月1日至2002年10月31日为评估时段,结合旱灾农业损失动态评估模型,计算得到采取灌溉措施后挽回的粮食总产量,以此对农业灌溉效益进行评估。结果表明,建立的模型使用方便,可以实现对旱灾损失及灌溉效益的动态评估,为抗旱决策提供技术支撑。Drought disaster is the biggest disaster, which has brought indelible loss to agricultural production. Loss assessment of drought disaster is an important component of drought mitigation. This study simplified the Jensen formula, established a dynamic assessment model of agricultural losses of drought disaster, combining with irrigation scheme, and then assessed the benefit by taking effective measures after the drought disaster happened. Choosing Fengxian in Xuzhou as the research area, regarding from June 1st to October 31st in 2002 as the assessment period, combining with the dynamic evaluation model about the ag ricultural loss of drought disaster, this study calculated the total grain production which was saved as taking active irrigation measures. Finally, the agricultural irrigation benefit was assessed using the production. The results showed that the model could be applied easily, and could dynamically assess of drought disasters loss and irrigation benefit. This study provides a technical support for the anti-drought decision-making.

关 键 词：旱灾 农业损失 动态评估模型 灌溉效益 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护] S274.4