基于MOS方法的环渤海地区大风中期预报  

Medium-term prediction of gale in the Bohai rim based on the MOS technology

作　　者：巩崇水[1] 曾淑玲[1] 尚可政[1] 王式功[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第4期33-37,共5页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2007BAC29B032009BAC53B02)

摘　　要：针对环渤海地区64个台站,应用MOS技术制作了平均风速、最大风速以及大风的96～240 h的中期预报.预报检验结果显示:平均风速和最大风速的中期预报在大多数情况下是可用的,对于大风的灾害性预报的效果较好,但仍有待于进一步提高,需要在预报因子的筛选和多种观测信息的运用方面加以改进.The 96～240 h medium-term forecast of the average wind and maximum wind in 64 Bohai rim stations was discussed by using the MOS technology,which is one of the basic methods of interpretation and applications of numerical forecast products.Forecast verification showed that medium-term forecast of the average wind speed and maximum wind speed produced good effects in most cases and the forecasting value was available.Further improvement of the prediction of severe wind will be required in two respects,i.e.,the prediction factors in the selection and a variety of observational information.

关 键 词：大风 中期预报 MOS法 环渤海 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]