集群低碳化过程技术路径规划的演化分析  

Analysis on the Evolutionary of Technological Road Mapping Construction of the Low-Carbon Development for Clusters

作　　者：刘振华[1] 武春友[1] 陈大鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2011年第18期1-5,共5页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70773016);辽宁省科学技术计划项目(200801002);辽宁省社科规划基金项目(L07BJY014)

摘　　要：在低碳经济背景下,集群经济面临巨大的碳减排压力。从集群低碳化的产业层面,探讨技术路径规划早期的集群技术选择和社会消费模式的动态演化过程。模型分析结果表明,集群低碳化技术路径构建的演化过程中,多种因素都会影响博弈结果。集群技术路径规划可能出现不同的演化趋势,其中有两种情况会出现演化稳定。最后,根据集群技术路径规划博弈分析结果,提出促进集群低碳化发展的建议。The industrial cluster faces tremendous pressure of carbon emission reduction in the development of low carbon economy.From the angle of industry,this paper discusses the dynamic evolvement process of the technological selection and social consumption pattern in the early stage of the technological road mapping（TRM） within a cluster＇s low carbon development.Game analysis shows several factors will affect the game result.The tech selection and the social demand of the technological road mapping within a cluster may take on different evolvement trends at different conditions.And there are two evolutionary stable strategies in two cases.At last,based on the result of the game analysis of TRM within a cluster,the paper presents some proposals to promote the development of the low carbon in an industrial cluster.

关 键 词：低碳经济 技术路径规划 演化博弈 低碳技术 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]