基于贝叶斯随机评价方法的洪水灾情等级评价  

A Comprehensive Method to Evaluate Flood Disasters based on Basyesian Stochastic Assessment Method

作　　者：李宁 翟亚欣[2] 王威[2] 王延辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]烟台市建筑设计研究股份有限公司,山东烟台264008 [2]北京工业大学抗震防灾研究所,北京100124

出　　处：《北京联合大学学报》2011年第3期70-73,共4页Journal of Beijing Union University

基　　金：国家十一五科技支撑计划项目(2006BAJ06B01);中国工程院重大咨询项目(2010-ZD-4)

摘　　要：为了提高洪水灾情评估的准确性,应用贝叶斯随机评价方法,以受灾面积、受灾人口数、破坏房屋面积和经济损失作为评价因子,提出了基于贝叶斯随机评价方法的洪水灾情等级评价方法。该方法通过计算洪水灾情的单个指标属于某个评价级别的概率,由最大似然分类原则确定单个灾情指标的评价级别,进而采用最大加权概率原则推求其综合评价级别。通过实例分析得出的评价结果同灰色关联法、灰色聚类法、PCNN网络模型的评价结果进行了比较,表明其用于洪水灾情综合评价具有科学性和有效性。In order to enhance the accuracy of assessment,a comprehensive method for the evaluation of flood disasters,which took the disaster area,the affected population,the destruction of housing area and the economic loss as evaluation factors,was established based on basyesian stochastic theory.In this method,according to the maximum likelihood ordering principle,the assessment order of actual flood disasters was firstly derived through calculating the probability of each of those vulnerability indices belonging to the assessment order used in the vulnerability assessment criteria of flood disasters.Secondly the integrated vulnerability assessment order of flood disasters was derived by using the maximum weighted probability principle.This method was verified clearly through the practical example,and the rationality and validity were demonstrated.

关 键 词：洪水灾情 贝叶斯随机评价方法 评价 

分 类 号：O212.8[理学—概率论与数理统计]