2004—2010年褡裢地区秋季黄河气旋统计分析与预报  

Statistical Analysis and Forecast of the Autumn Yellow River Cyclone in the Da Lian Area During 2004 to 2010

作　　者：陈志禄[1] 杨俊杰[1] 贾本凯[1] 赵志超[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军91967部队

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2011年第B09期31-34,共4页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

摘　　要：利用2004—2010年间M icaps地面天气图,对褡裢地区秋季黄河气旋发生、移动趋势、消亡及其对褡裢地区天气的影响进行了统计分析,结果表明:2004—2010年褡裢地区秋季79次降水中,有23次是黄河气旋影响所致;影响褡裢地区降水的主要是一类黄河气旋。黄河气旋的预报着眼点:40—45°N有锋区存在,新疆有小槽移出,当小槽移至100°E附近并发展时,槽前常有黄河气旋生成;黄河上游地区有暖性低涡或倒槽存在,新疆高空槽移近时,由于槽后冷空气的加入,倒槽被切断,形成黄河气旋。黄河气旋的移动方向与500 hPa槽前气流方向基本一致。By using the Micaps surface maps during 2004 to 2010 years,this paper had analyzed statistically the autumn Yellow River cyclone happening,moving trend,dying and influence on the Da Lian area.The results show that： during 2004 to 2010 years,there are 79 times precipitation in total happened in the Da Lian area,23 times of which are caused by the Yellow River cyclones;the main influence on precipitation in the Da Lian area is the first class Yellow River cyclone.The Yellow River cyclone forecasting focus： there is frontal zone in 40—45 °N area and a small groove shifting out of Xinjiang area,when the small groove moves to the vicinity of 100°E and developing,the groove forefront often has the Yellow River cyclone generated;there has a warming low vortex or a inverted groove in the upstream area of the Yellow River,when the Xinjiang upper groove approach,the inverted groove often been cut off by the cold air after the Xinjiang upper groove and shapes the Yellow River cyclone.The movement direction of the Yellow River cyclones is as basically same as the airflow before 500 hPa groove.

关 键 词：黄河气旋 分类 天气形势 预报 

分 类 号：P447[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]