烤烟主要病害与烟叶产量产值损失量间的相关和回归分析  

Correlation and Stepwise Regression Analysis on the Loss of Leaf Yields and Output Value Under Three Main Diseases

作　　者：冯连军[1] 朱列书 朱静娴[1] 杨亚[1] 刘伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学农学院,湖南长沙410128 [2]中国烟草中南农业试验站,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报》2011年第4期650-654,共5页Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis

基　　金：湖南省烟草专卖局湖南特色新品种选育资助项目(2006A-12)

摘　　要：对烤烟主要病害与烟叶产量产值损失量进行了相关分析和逐步回归分析。结果表明:各品种烤烟在三种主要病害的影响下,产量产值损失量分别达到一定程度的显著水平和极显著水平。产量产值损失量最大的为KRK26,达到了885.00 kg/hm2和10 936.05元/hm2。相关分析结果表明,烟草青枯病病指分别与产量产值损失量存在着极显著的正相关。逐步回归分析和通径分析进一步证明了烟草青枯病病指是影响较大的因子,其次是气候性斑点病病指。逐步回归方程分别为Y1=-7.144 8+5.016 8X1+5.635 5X3(R=0.955 4)和Y2=-88.325 8+62.004 6X1+69.641 2X3(R=0.955 4)。Correlation and stepwise regression analysis on the loss of leaf yields and output value under three main diseases was conducted.The results demonstrated that： under the influence of three main diseases,the loss of leaf yields and output value of nine flue-cured tobacco reached significant and highly significant levels to a certain extent.Especially KRK26,its loss reached 885.00 kg/hm2 and 10 936.05 yuan/hm2.Correlation analysis showed that,the disease index of Granville wilt was significantly positively correlated with the loss of leaf yields and output value.Stepwise regression and path coefficient analysis also demonstrated that the disease index of Granville wilt was the primary factor,the disease index of tobacco weather fleck was the next.The stepwise regression equation were Y1=-7.1448＋5.0168X1＋5.6355X3（R=0.9554） and Y2=-88.3258＋62.0046X1＋69.6412X3（R=0.9554）.

关 键 词：气候性斑点病 烟草青枯病 产量产值 相关分析 逐步回归分析 

分 类 号：S435.72[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]