渐进式滑坡破坏概率的分析及应用  

Analysis and Application of the Failure Probability of Progressive Failure Landslide

作　　者：肖莉丽[1] 殷坤龙[1] 翟月[1] 陈阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学工程学院,武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学数理学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2011年第5期20-25,共6页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(CUGL100213)

摘　　要：对于渐进式滑坡,其整体失稳概率无法反映滑坡内部破坏的发展状况,而利用边坡渐进破坏随机原理计算各条块的破坏概率则可以解决这一问题。本文以巴东县枣子树坪滑坡为例,利用渐进破坏力学模型和Monte-Carlo概率原理,将滑坡各条块单元视为分析对象,计算在不同库水位和降雨工况下滑坡各条块的安全余度和破坏概率,结果表明:不同工况条件下各条块的破坏概率均不相同,降雨和库水位升降均会改变条块局部破坏概率的分布;坝前库水位175 m相对于145 m天然工况而言,滑坡前、后缘条块破坏概率均有所降低,中部条块基本不变,滑坡整体稳定性变好;在坝前库水位145 m+50年重现期降雨工况下,滑坡各条块整体稳定性均变差,滑坡破坏从前缘开始形成牵引破坏;比较滑坡渐进破坏概率与整体破坏概率发现,前者能更好地反映边坡稳定状况。渐进式滑坡破坏概率分析方法对滑坡的监测和防治具有重要的指导意义。For the progressive failure landslide,the whole slope failure probability cannot reflect the internal failure development,while calculating the failure probability of every slice based on the slope progressive failure random principle can solve this problem effectively.Taking Zaozishuping landslide in Badong Couonty for example,this paper takes every single slope slice as the study object and calculates the safety margin and failure probability of every slice under different conditions on the basis of progressive failure model and Monte Carlo probability principle.The calculation results indicate that the failure probability of slices is different from each other under whatever conditions and the fluctuation of rainfall and reservoir water level will change the state of slice stability.Comparing the reservoir water level condition of 145 m and 175 m indicates that the failure probability of the front and trialing part are both declined,while the middle part is basicaly unchanged,so the whole stability is increased.Under the condition of 145 m reservoir water level and 50-year return period rainfall,the stability of almost every slice becomes worse and the slope fails from the front edge of landslide.The comparison of the progressive failure and whole failure probability shows that the former method can better reflect the slope stability state and it can contribute to the monitoring and prevention work of landslide.

关 键 词：渐进式滑坡 破坏概率 Monte-Carlo概率原理 安全余度 稳定性 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]