北京市朝阳区大气污染与居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡关系的时间序列研究  

Relationship between Air Pollution and Daily Respiratory System Disease Mortality in Chaoyang District,Beijing: a Time-series Analysis

作　　者：张金艳[1] 孟海英[1] 张桂斌[1] 张政[1] 赵伟[1] 潘小川[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市朝阳区疾病预防控制中心公卫一科,北京100021 [2]北京大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2011年第9期788-791,共4页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(20637020)

摘　　要：目的探讨北京市朝阳区大气可吸入颗粒物（PMIO）、二氧化硫（SO2）、二氧化氮（NO2）与居民呼吸系统疾病每日死亡的相关性。方法2004年至2008年期间的北京市朝阳区每日死亡数据源于朝阳区疾病预防控制中心，同时收集北京市朝阳区日均SO2、NO2、PMl0浓度和日均气温、相对湿度数据。使用广义相加模型（generalized additivemodel，GAM）分析PMIO、SO2以及NO2与呼吸系统疾病每日死亡的关系，并且控制日均气温、相对湿度的影响。结果大气PMIO、SO2、N02每增加10μg／m^3，分别导致朝阳区居民呼吸系统疾病死亡增加0．37％（95％CI：-0．02％-0．76％），1．02％（95％6I：0．02％～2．02％）和1．61％（95％CI：0．30％-2．92％）。当两种或两种以上污染物同时引入模型时，污染物对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响没有统计学意义（P〉0．05）。结论本研究结果提示北京市朝阳区大气SO2、NO2浓度可以对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡造成影响，PMl0浓度对居民健康影响不明显。Objective To konw the relationship between daily concentration of PMIO, SO2 and NO2 and daily respiratory system disease mortality in Chaoyang district, Beijing. Methods The time-series data of daily mortality of Chaoyang district, Beijing was collected from Chaoyang District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, and the data of daily concentration of PM10, SO2 and NO2, daily average temperature, relative humidity were collected from the related departments. The time-series analysis was conducted by using poisson regression with generalized additive model （GAM）. Results An increase of 10% μg/m3 of PMIO, SO2 and NO2 could increase the respiratory system disease mortality by 0.37%（95%CI：-0.02%-0.76%）, 1.02%（95% CI：0.02%-2.02%） and 1.61% （95%CI：0.30%-2.92%） respectively; In the multiple air pollutants models, PM10,SO2 and NO2 level had no obvious effect on respiratory system disease deaths （P〉0.05）. Conclusion Air SO2, NO2 of present level have an adverse effect on the daily respiratory system disease mortality of the local residents in Chaoyang district. The daily concentration of air PMIO is not associated with the daily population mortality statistically.

关 键 词：大气污染物 日死亡人数 时间序列研究 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R122.2[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]