基于最优风险指标的连锁故障模型和薄弱线路辨识  

A Cascading Failure Model and High-risk Line Identification Based on an Optimal Risk Index

作　　者：丁雪阳[1] 刘新东[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学电气自动化研究所,广东省珠海市519070

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2011年第18期7-10,86,共5页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51007030)~~

摘　　要：概括了直流潮流停电OPA模型及其改进模型的不足,据此在OPA模型的基础上引入风险理论,建立新的连锁故障模型。新模型包含内外2层循环,内层循环基于传统的直流潮流线性规划,描述实际电网的连锁线路过载与故障;外层循环包括负荷增长与线路扩容2个部分,线路扩容部分基于风险理论,依据扩容风险指标、扩容延迟时间、扩容度函数以及线路风险值,确定是否扩容以及扩容力度。给出使系统成本降到最低的最优风险指标的确定方法以及对连锁故障影响较大的系统薄弱环节的判定方法,进而提出新的电力系统连锁故障预防策略。新英格兰系统仿真表明,新模型较原模型更接近实际运行中的电网,基于风险评估的线路扩容可随风险指标不同程度地降低故障概率和负荷损失。Through detailed analysis of the defects of OPA and its improved model,a new model based on the risk theory is proposed.The new model includes internal and external circulations.The internal circulation is based on traditional linear programming of direct current power flow to describe the cascading line overload and failure.The external circulation includes load growing and line capacity improvement,and the later is based on the risk theory.Whether to improve the line capacity and the degree of line capacity improvement are determined by risk index of line capacity improvement,delay time of capacity improvement,improvement degree function and line risk value.A new prevention strategy for cascading failure is proposed by identifying the high-risk lines and defining optimal risk index of line capacity improvement which minimizes capacity improvement cost and load loss.Finally,by comparing the outage probability,load loss and risk index between the original model and the new model,the reliability and practicability of the new model are illustrated.

关 键 词：连锁故障 停电模型 风险评估 运行规划 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]