应用农业生产系统模型分析冬小麦-夏玉米轮作体系的农田水氮利用效率 I：模型参数的灵敏度分析与标定  

Analysis of water and nitrogen use efficiency of the winter wheat-summer maize rotation using agricultural production systems simulator I. Parameter sensitivity analysis and calibration

作　　者：韩琳琳[1,2] 任理[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]教育部植物一土壤相互作用重点实验室,北京100193

出　　处：《水利学报》2011年第9期1044-1050,共7页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2009CB118607);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(200800190035)

摘　　要：以采集的北京市海淀区东北旺试验站大量的田间实测数据为基础,对农业生产系统模型(Agricultural Production Systems Simulator,APSIM)进行详细的参数灵敏度分析与标定,结果显示:标定模拟的土壤剖面体积含水量动态的精度较高,平均相对误差为13.41%;标定模拟的土壤剖面硝态氮浓度动态的精度较低,平均的相对误差为29.69%;标定模拟的冬小麦叶面积指数、生物量和产量的平均相对误差分别为36.49%、24.18%和32.31%;标定模拟的夏玉米叶面积指数、生物量和产量的平均相对误差分别为31.76%、35.84%和26.44%。以上标定模拟的精度就田间实际情况而言,总体是可以接受的。经过详细的参数标定后的APSIM模型将为深入探讨不同农田管理措施下水氮利用效率的长期变化提供可靠的定量分析手段。Detailed measurements of field experiments in Dongbeiwang Station,Beijing,were used to calibrate the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator（APSIM）.Volumetric soil water content in the individual soil layers were well simulated,with a profile-averaged MRE=13.41%.In contrast to volumetric soil water content,the soil nitrate concentration in the individual soil layers were simulated not so well,with a profile-averaged MRE=29.69%.The simulated winter wheat LAI,above ground biomass and yield predictions were acceptable with MRE of 36.49%,24.18% and 32.31% respectively.Summer maize LAI,above ground biomass and yield with MRE of 31.76%,35.84% and 26.44% respectively.The overall results were found to be acceptable.The calibrated model will be used for evaluation of long-term WUE and PFPN variation between different agronomic management.

关 键 词：冬小麦-夏玉米轮作体系 水分利用效率 氮肥偏生产力 农业生产系统模型 灵敏度分析 参数标定 

分 类 号：S152[农业科学—土壤学]