变化环境下治涝效益估算方法研究  

Study on the estimation methods of the direct benefit for waterlogging prevention under changing environment

作　　者：刘曾美[1,2] 陈子燊[2] 吴俊校[3] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学水利水电工程系,广东广州510640 [2]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [3]广东省水利水电建设管理中心,广东广州510600

出　　处：《水利学报》2011年第9期1081-1087,共7页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：广东省防洪减灾研究项目(2007440003040254);2009年广东水利科技创新与推广项目

摘　　要：治涝工程建设前后涝区内状况往往会发生变化,承灾体的种类、数量和空间分布也会有所改变,因此,变化环境下治涝工程效益应为有治涝工程情况下比假设无该治涝工程情况下减少的涝灾损失;且各频率的暴雨导致的涝灾损失应为与承泄区各种水位组合下的涝灾损失的数学期望值。本文基于Copula函数和GIS构建的变化环境下治涝效益分析计算模型,用Copula函数构建涝区暴雨和承泄区水位的联合分布,借助GIS技术构建涝区数字高程模型。根据涝区暴雨和承泄区水位遭遇组合下的积水过程估算其涝灾损失,进而计算有治涝工程和假设无该治涝工程两种工况时所有组合下的涝灾损失期望值,从而得到治涝工程效益。以广州市南沙区的一个涝区为例简要说明了治涝效益的分析过程,结果表明,本文构建的治涝效益分析模型能分析涝区内状况和承灾体均发生改变、同时考虑涝区暴雨和承泄区水位全体组合下的治涝效益,可为治涝工程建设的合理决策提供科学依据。Before and after the waterlogging prevention engineering construction,the internal situation of the waterlogged zone and the type,amount and spatial distribution of hazard-bearing bodies may change.Consequently,the direct economic benefits of waterlogging prevention under changing environment should be the difference between having waterlogging prevention engineering and on the assumption that without waterlogging prevention engineering.Besides,the waterlogging loss for the rainstorm with any frequency should be the expectation value of the waterlogging losses of all the possible combinations of the rainstorm and any water level at drainage receiver.Based on Copula function and GIS,the model for estimating the direct benefits of waterlogging prevention under changing environment has been put forward.Copula function is used to build the joint distribution of waterlogged zone＇s rainstorms and drainage receiver＇s water levels,and GIS is used to build the digital elevation model（DEM）.The waterlogging loss can be estimated according to the process of waterlogging under each possible combination of waterlogged zone＇s rainstorm and drainage receiver＇s water level,then calculate the expectation values of the waterlog losses of all the possible combinations both under waterlogging prevention engineering and on the assumption that without waterlogging prevention engineering.Thereby,the benefits of waterlogging prevention can be deduced.The estimation of losses for waterlogged zone in the Nansha District of Guangzhou is taken as an example for demonstration.The results indicate that the model can be used to estimating the direct benefits of waterlogging prevention with a view to all the possible combinations of the waterlogged zone＇s rainstorm and the drainage receiver＇s water level when the internal situation and hazard-bearing bodies have been changed,which is helpful to the rational decision-making for the building of waterlogging prevention engineering.

关 键 词：变化环境 治涝效益 涝灾损失 估算 COPULA函数 GIS 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]