安徽省城镇居民人均收入的组合预测  

The Combination Forecast of Per Capita Income of UrbanResidents in Anhui Province

作　　者：范悍彪[1] 杨桂元[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《许昌学院学报》2011年第5期25-28,共4页Journal of Xuchang University

基　　金：安徽省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目资助(2009sk130)

摘　　要：以1995～2009年安徽省城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入的数据,分别建立时间序列模型、回归模型和灰色预测模型.然后在三个单一预测模型的基础上综合各个预测模型的优缺点,通过使组合预测误差平方和最小确定各单一预测方法的权重系数,得到最优组合预测模型.最后对几种预测方法进行了评价,得出组合预测效果比较精确.In this paper, a time series model, a regression model and a grey forecast model are established respectively based on the data of per capita disposable income of urban households in Anhui province from 1995 to 2009. Then the advantages and disadvantages of each model are integrated to obtain the optimal combination forecasting model by determining the weight coefficient of each single forecase through making the sum of combination forecast error square least. At last, these forecast methods are evaluated, and it is concluded that the combination forecast is more accurate.

关 键 词：时间序列 回归预测 灰色预测 组合预测 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济] F224.0