中国通胀、资产价格及货币政策间关系研究——基于开放经济视角的分析  

A Study on the Relationship between and among Inflation,Asset Price and Money Policy in China—Analysis from the Perspective of Open Economies

作　　者：李勇[1] 邓晶[2] 王有贵[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学工商管理学院 [2]北京师范大学管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2011年第10期23-29,共7页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"加快国有大型企业的现代企业制度建设问题研究"(08cjy033);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2009AB-19)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文选取2004年1月至2010年9月的中国房屋销售价格指数、货币供应量M2、美元兑人民币汇率、外汇储备、上证综指、CPI的月度数据作为研究样本,结合"有向无环图"(DAG)技术,建立SVAR模型来考察上述变量之间的动态关系。研究表明,房价、货币供应量对CPI的影响较大;货币供应量对CPI、房价、股价的影响力依次减弱;有理由推测国际游资对中国股市、房地产市场和中国实体经济部分商品的关注度依次减弱;中国的货币政策仍具有较强的独立性,但外汇储备的持续增加在一定程度上削弱了这种独立性。In this paper, with the monthly data of China＇s CPI, housing price, money supply M2, exchange rate of U. S. dollar against RMB, foreign exchange reserves, the shanghai composite index from January 2004 to September 2010, combined with ＂ Directed Acyelic Graph＂ （DAG） technology, a SVAR model is developed to examine the dynamic relationship between and among these variables. The results show that housing prices and money supply significantly affect CPI; Influences of money supply on CPI, housing prices and stock prices by money supply are decreased in turn; It is reasonable to infer that the level of international hot money＇s attention to the Chinese stock market, real estate market and some commodities of China＇s real economy is reduced in turn; China＇s monetary policy still works highly independently, but the sustained and rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves has undermined it to some extent.

关 键 词：房价 外汇储备 有向无环图(DAG) 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]