中国中东部地区暴雨气候及其农业灾情的风险评估  

Risk assessment of rainstorm climate and its induced agricultural disasters in east-central China

作　　者：温泉沛[1,2] 霍治国[1] 马振峰[3] 肖晶晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]成都信息工程学院,成都610225 [3]四川省气候中心,成都610072

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2011年第10期2370-2380,共11页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK50B02)资助

摘　　要：利用中国中东部292个站点1961—2008年的暴雨气候资料和各省的农业灾情资料,采用主成分分析、软直方图估计、灰色关联法、正态信息扩散等方法,分别构建了暴雨气候指数、农业相对灾情指数及其风险估算模型,对中国中东部地区暴雨气候及其农业灾情的风险进行了研究。结果表明:中国中东部地区的暴雨气候风险,由南向北逐渐减少,高值区位于海南和广东、广西的沿海地区,其次是广西和广东的中北部,江淮地区的湖北、安徽、江西以及湘赣地区的湖南,低值区主要位于除辽宁沿海区域外的东北地区以及华北北部的河北和山西;农业相对灾情风险的高值区位于江淮地区的安徽、湖北,湘赣地区的湖南,东南沿海的广东,低值区是华北地区的河北、河南,东北地区的辽宁;除广东省外,各代表省的暴雨气候指数与农业相对灾情指数的相关系数均达到0.6以上(P<0.01)。经多年实际农业灾情验证,暴雨气候指数和农业相对灾情指数能较好地评估实际暴雨的强度及其对农业的影响。By using the 1961-2008 rainstorm climate observation data from 292 meteorological stations in east-central China and the historical information about the agricultural disasters in each of the provinces,a rainstorm climatic risk index and an agricultural relative disaster index as well as their risk assessment models were constructed by principal component analysis,soft histogram estimation,grey correlation analysis,and normal information diffusion,aimed to analyze the risks of rainstorm climate and its induced agriculture disasters in east-central China.In the study area,the rainstorm climatic risk had a decreasing trend from south to north,with the high-value area in Hainan and coastal areas of Guangdong and Guangxi,the medium-value area in north-central part of Guangdong and Guangxi,Jianghuai Region＇s Anhui,Hubei,and Jiangxi,and Xianggan Region＇s Hunan,and the low-value area in Northeast China except its coastal areas of Liaoning and in Shanxi and Hebei of North China.The high-value area of agricultural relative disaster risk was in Anhui,Hubei,Hunan,and Guangdong,and the low-value area was in Hebei,Henan,and Liaoning.The correlation coefficient between the rainstorm climatic index and the agricultural relative disaster index for each of the provinces except Guangdong was 〉0.6（P〈0.01）.Through the verification with many years＇ actual agricultural disasters,it was suggested that the rainstorm climatic risk index and the agricultural relative disaster index could be applied to better assess the actual rainstorm strength and the possible rainstorm-induced agriculture loss,respectively.

关 键 词：暴雨致灾因子 暴雨气候指数 农业相对灾情指数 风险评估 

分 类 号：S422[农业科学—植物保护]