基于改进灰色模型与综合气象因素的母线负荷预测  

Bus Load Forecasting Based on Improved Grey Model and Meteorological Elements

作　　者：廖峰[1] 刘清良[2] 贺辉[2] 程义明 徐聪颖[1] 姚建刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,湖南省长沙市410082 [2]湖南省电力公司,湖南省长沙市410007 [3]湖南湖大华龙电气与信息技术有限公司,湖南省长沙市410082

出　　处：《电网技术》2011年第10期183-188,共6页Power System Technology

摘　　要：针对母线负荷与系统负荷的差异——母线负荷基数小、易受气象要素变化影响等,为了充分考虑气象要素、日类型、小电源等因素对母线负荷预测的影响,提出了一种利用指数加权法来处理原始数据的改进灰色模型。以预测日的日类型与综合气象要素为依据,将其模糊化为日特征向量,采用灰色关联度来选择最优相似日,作为改进灰色模型的原始序列进行预测,以提高预测精度。通过对某省某地若干个不同负荷类型的220 kV母线负荷进行预测分析,验证了此方法是实用、有效的。In allusion to the features of bus load that its base load is small and liable to be influenced by the variation of meteorological elements, to fully take the influences of meteorological elements, day-types and small electricity resources on the forecasting of bus load into account, an improved grey model, in which the original data is processed by exponential weighting, is proposed. By means of taking the day-type and meteorological elements of the day to be forecasted as the foundation and fuzzifying these factors as the eigenvectors of the day, the optimal similar days are chosen as the original series for the improved grey model by grey relevancy to improve forecasting accuracy. Forecasting results of several 220kV bus loads with different bus load types in a certain provincial power grid show that the proposed method is effective and available.

关 键 词：改进灰色模型 综合气象要素 相似日 母线负荷 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]