基于区间理论的高应力巷(隧)道围岩岩爆预测  

Rockburst Prediction of Surrounding Rocks in High-Stress Roadways(Tunnels) Based on Interval Theory

作　　者：张晓君[1] 郑怀昌[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学资源与环境工程学院,山东淄博255049

出　　处：《采矿与安全工程学报》2011年第3期401-406,共6页Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(Y2008F51);山东理工大学博士基金项目(4041410012)

摘　　要：针对巷(隧)道围岩物理、力学及环境参数取值的不确定性及现有岩爆预测方法的局限性与不足,考虑围岩岩爆的特点,引入区间分析理论,给出巷(隧)道围岩稳定非概率可靠性分析的区间运算方法;视巷(隧)道围岩物理、力学及环境参数为区间变量,根据岩爆烈度分级标准,建立基于区间理论的高应力巷(隧)道围岩岩爆、岩爆烈度分级的非概率可靠性预测模型;通过工程实例分析,结果表明了本文方法的合理性与可行性,并探讨了各参数离差的变化对非概率可靠性指标的影响规律,具有一定的工程参考价值.Aiming at the uncertainty in value determination of mechanical and environmental parameters of roadways（tunnels） and the limitation of the currently used method for rockburst prediction,we proposed a calculation method of non-probability reliability analysis for the stability of surrounding rocks.Regarding the mechanical and environmental parameters of roadways as interval variables,we established the non-probability reliability prediction model for intensity grading of rockburst in high-stress roadways.The case study shows that this method is reasonable and reliable.In addition,we discussed the effect in deviation of parameters on non-probability reliability indexes.

关 键 词：岩爆 围岩 区间分析 预测 非概率可靠性指标 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TD324[矿业工程—矿井建设]