北方某工业园区多种水资源优化调度风险分析  

Risk Analysis on Multi-water Resources Optimization Scheduling in a Northern Industrial Park

作　　者：苏欣[1] 田一梅[1] 李震[1,2] 金兰[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072 [2]青岛市市政工程设计研究院有限责任公司,山东青岛266071 [3]中国市政工程华北设计研究总院,天津300074

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2011年第19期46-49,共4页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2008ZX07314-003);天津市科技创新专项资金资助项目(06FZZDSH00900)

摘　　要：多种水资源优化调度是一个复杂的系统工程,由于大量主观和客观因素的局限,会产生一定的风险,因此有必要对多种水资源优化调度方案进行风险分析。以北方某工业园区多种水资源优化调度系统的布局、运行工况与园区近期规划为依据,运用智暴法对园区多种水资源优化调度进行风险识别,并应用概率论和数理统计的方法,对风险发生的概率及其损失程度做出定量的估计,最后根据风险评价进行风险决策。The multi-water resources optimization scheduling is a complex system project. Howev- er, risk has to be taken because of the restrictions of subject and object factors. As a result, it is necessary to carry out the risk analysis. Taking the configuration and operational condition of multi-water resources optimization scheduling system and the recent planning data in a northern industrial park as the basis, the risk recognition of the multi-water resources optimization scheduling was carried out using the brainstorming method. The risk probability and loss were quantitatively estimated using probability theory and mathematical statistics. Finally, the risk decision was made on the basis of the risk assessment.

关 键 词：多种水资源 优化调度 风险分析 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]