委内瑞拉石油工业形势及对我国的影响  

Venezuela′s Petroleum Industry Today and Its Influence on China

作　　者：张抗[1] 卢雪梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工股份有限公司石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《中外能源》2011年第10期18-36,共19页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：委内瑞拉是一个严重依赖石油出口的石油大国,其石油工业具有良好的发展前景。据BP数据,2010年委石油探明剩余可采储量占全球的15.3%,仅次于沙特而居第二位。如果计入已达到经济可采边际的奥里诺科重油带的重油,则其全部储量可超过沙特常规石油储量。奥里诺科已成为委最重要的石油蕴藏区,近年其石油产量主要来自重/超重质油粗加工而成的奥里乳化油。委还拥有丰富的天然气资源,但长期以来的指导思想是重油轻气。2009年委石油出口额占到出口总额的94.1%,暴露出经济结构失调、过分依靠石油出口的缺陷。委内瑞拉政局动荡,近30余年来石油政策多变。查维斯执政后大力实施新国有化,其石油政策的直接后果是外资投入和国家石油公司对石油的投资明显不足,导致石油产量、出口量下降,原拟以石油收入全面发展油气工业、调整不均衡的经济结构、大幅提高人民生活水平的愿望也难以实现。石油是委内瑞拉与中国贸易的主要品种,虽然近年委中贸易量有所提高,但还是有很大的发展空间。我国对委内瑞拉投资巨大,互补双赢的"贷款换石油"模式已在中国与原油和原料输出国的合作中被广泛采用。中国公司应继续以奥里诺科重油带的勘探开发为工作重点,并及早在我国规划适于加工奥里乳化油的炼厂,同时继续发展对委老油田的工作。如果委政局发生重大变化,或是油价下跌,将可能导致其社会、经济出现动荡,这已引起国际分析机构的关注。我国应充分发挥合资公司各方和本地员工的积极性,更全面地进入委油气领域的上中下游各环节,并在其经济的各个方面进行更全面的合作,对各类政府势力要进行全方位的友好交往。Venezuela is a country rich in oil resources but relying heavily on oil exports.Its oil industry has good development prospects.Data available from BP shows that in 2010 Venezuela＇s remaining proved recover- able oil reserves represented 15.3% of the world＇s total,the second highest worldwide,only lower that of Saudi Arabia.If heavy oil in the Orinoco heavy oil belt,which has reached the economically recoverable mar- gin,is included,Venezuela＇s total oil reserves would exceed Saudi Arabia＇s conventional oil reserves.Orinoco is now the most important oil play for Venezuela.In recent years,most of the country＇s oil output has come from Orimulsion derived from primary heavy/uhraheavy oil processing.Venezuela also has rich natural gas re- sources although the country has long attached much of its attention to oil.In 2009 ,oil represented 94.1% of Venezuela＇s total commodity exports in terms of export value.This reflects an imbalanced economic structure and over-reliance of the country on oil export.Venezuela＇s politics are volatile.Over the past 30 years,the country＇s oil policies have changed frequently.Chavez has aggressively pushed a new nationalization campaign since he took office.The direct consequence of his oil policies is the considerable shortfall of investment from both foreign investors and national oil companies in the oil sector,resulting in a decline in oil production and exports.Chavez＇s intent was to use oil incomes to develop the oil and gas industry,adjust the imbalanced economic structure and greatly enhance people＇s living standard,but now they seem unachievable objectives. Oil dominates China＇s trade with Venezuela.The volume of the Venezuelan-Chinese trade has increased in recent years;however,there is still large room for further growth of their trade.China has invested heavily in Venezuela.The win-win trade pattern of ＂credit for oil＂ has been widely adopted in China＇s trade with crude oil and other raw material exporting countries.Chinese companies should continue

关 键 词：委内瑞拉 石油储量 奥里乳化油 石油出口 新国有化 贷款换石油 全面合作 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F426.22