中国地方政府支出与居民消费关系的区域差异研究  

A Study on Regional Difference of Relationship between Local Government Expenditure and Private Consumption

作　　者：洪涛[1] 毛中根[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院 [2]西南财经大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2011年第10期25-32,共8页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"从生产大国到消费大国:促进中国消费需求增长的理论与对策研究"(项目编号08CJL007);教育部博士点基金"区域产业政策与区域经济协调发展的实现机制研究"(项目编号200802131040);西南财经大学"211工程"三期青年教师成长项目"政府消费的产出弹性与增长效应研究"

摘　　要：本文利用分类回归树(CART)方法,根据中国地方政府支出与居民消费关系的差异将中国31个省(市、区)分为两组,分别对两组区域进行面板数据分析。结果表明:政府支出增长对居民消费的影响在第一组区域具有显著的引致效应,而在第二组区域则表现为挤出效应。在第一组,农业支出、政策性补贴和政府消费的增长对居民消费具有较大的正向影响,但只能在当期发挥作用;在第二组,则是基本建设支出和科学技术支出的增长显著促进了居民消费,且显示出较好的持续性。应根据不同的区域特征采取针对性措施,以有效拉动居民消费增长。Using a method called CART,the autors split 31 provinces in China up into two groups. The results of panel data analysis show that government expenditure have crowd - in effects in group one and crowd - out effects in group two on private consumption. In the first group, government expenditure on agriculture, fiscal subsidy and government consumption have crowd - in effects on private consumption, but these effects will not last to next year. In the second group, governments expenditure on infrastructure and science ＆ technology have crowd - in effects on private consumption, and these effects will persist for a couple of years. To drive private consumption grow fast, local governments must format pollcy to get with their own distinguishing features

关 键 词：地方政府支出 居民消费 区域差异 CART方法 

分 类 号：F81[经济管理—财政学]