区域科技进步水平预警系统研究——以温州为例  

The Alert System of the Level of Technological Advancement

作　　者：徐徐[1] 吴治平[1] 

机构地区：[1]温州大学数学与信息科学学院,浙江温州325035

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2011年第10期96-101,108,共7页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：浙江省软科学研究项目(2010C35048);温州市科技计划项目(R20090065);温州市文化工程课题(Wyk10009)

摘　　要：为减少指标间的冗余度,利用灰色关联分析对初步选取的区域科技进步水平监测指标进行筛选,构建三层监测指标评价体系。在模糊层次分析法确定指标权重后,利用监测模型计算近十年浙江省11个市的科技进步水平综合评价值。在同级城市横向比较和历年数据纵向比较的基础上,以温州为例构建预警模型,对该区域科技进步状况进行跟踪研究,掌握科技发展动态。当科技进步水平发展滞后于兄弟城市时,预警模型能及时发出警报,引起政府和学者的关注,为科技宏观管理提供有效的数据支撑。In order to decrease the redundancy of indexes, the paper uses the Grey Relational Analysis to filter the monitoring indexes of the level of regional technological advancement selected preliminary, and constructs a three-layer monitoring indexes evaluation system. The paper determines the weights with Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, computes the comprehensive values of the level of technological advancement in recent decade of 11 cities in Zhejiang. Based on the horizontal comparison of compared cities and vertical comparison of data over the years, the paper sets up a warning model, track on its technological advancement, and masters technological dynamic development. When the level of technological advancement lower than other compared cities, the warning model would send alerts in time, arouse the concern of governments and scholars, and provide efficient data support for macro-management of technology.

关 键 词：科技进步 监测 预警 温州 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]