水资源投入产出方法研究进展  

Progress on water resources input-output analysis

作　　者：肖强[1,2] 胡聃[1] 郭振[1] 王天祥[2] 谭宏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [2]重庆文理学院非物质文化遗产研究中心,重庆402160

出　　处：《生态学报》2011年第19期5475-5483,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家973项目(2005CB724206);国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC28B04;2009BADC2B03);重庆文理学院资助课题(RCYJ2011006)

摘　　要：从扩展建模技术、系数调整2条线索回顾国内外的水资源投入产出研究进展,并讨论水资源的投入产出研究的不足和发展趋势。因为水资源投入产出表反映的是水资源与经济结构的关系,如果研究人员自己编制一张水资源投入产出表是不容易的事情。通常情况下都是以研究地域的投入产出表为基础,与其他模型相结合来研究水资源投入产出,但是水资源投入产出建模技术因为数据的限制而只能建立年度模型,具有很强的前提假定,使得投入产出建模技术缺乏灵活性,因而在运用中有对模型改进的必要。水资源投入产出扩展建模技术在这些方面就分别形成了与地区投入产出表结合的投入产出建模技术、与水资源供给相结合的投入产出扩展建模技术、与延长表结合的投入产出扩展建模技术。时效性缺乏一直就成为影响IO模型研究的最主要的瓶颈之一,为此,对各种用于建立新的IO表技术的研究一直受到普遍的重视。目前,IO表系数调整方法已从消耗系数不变的系数调整方法、以RAS为代表的比例法,发展到多种手段相结合的优化法。算法的改进和求解非线性规划问题的大量计算机软件的出现使得非线性优化模型得到了广泛的应用。Researches on input and output at home and abroad are divided into two parts.One part is about researches in application of the input-output table and the modeling techniques;the other is about methods of IO table or modeling research.Quite a number of application researches have been done in China,but within not so many fields as researches in other countries,although there are relatively more discussion and researches in modeling methods.The paper reviews the development of researches in input and output of water resources at home and abroad through the clues of extended modeling techniques and method updates,and discusses shortcomings and the development trend of researches in input and output of water resources. Because the IO table of water resources reflects the relationship between water resources and the economical structure,it is not an easy job for researchers to draw up such a table.The normal case is that researches in input and output of water resources are carried out with combination of study areas′ IO tables and other models.Modeling techniques of input-output of water resources have advantages to solve structural problems.It excels in solving problems of the industrial structure,distribution structure and consumption structure of water resources.But with high degree of presupposition,the techniques can only be utilized to make annual modes owing to datalimitation,and this further exposes inflexibility of modeling techniques of input-output of water resources.So it is necessary to do some modification to models in the actual application. Three types of extended modeling techniques of input-output are formed by combining extended modeling techniques of input-output of water resources respectively with local IO tables,supply of water resources and extended tables. Because there must be a lot of input of human power,materials and time for formulation of an IO table,it is neither possible nor necessary to draw up such a table each year.Even in the year of table formulation,publication of IO tables w

关 键 词：投入产出 水资源 扩展建模技术 系数调整 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F223[经济管理—国民经济]