均方根误差最小准则的水库群典型年选取  

The Selection of Typical Years of Reservoir Group Based on the Smallest Criterion of Root-Mean-Square Error

作　　者：孙东永[1] 王义民[1] 黄强[1] 张莉[1] 肖燕 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]贵州乌江水电开发有限责任公司,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2011年第3期275-279,共5页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2011CB403306);教育部重点研究资助项目(209125);陕西省教育厅科技资助项目(09JK664)

摘　　要：由于时空分布、气候、下垫面等水文特性的异同,流域梯级各水库典型年不完全同步,较难选取合理、统一且具有代表性的流域水文典型年。将均方根误差最小准则应用于流域典型年的选取,以乌江流域7级梯级水库为例选择流域丰、平、枯典型年,研究表明,均方根误差最小准则能够统筹考虑各个电站的实际情况,选取的各种频率下典型年与设计年径流量平均相对误差绝对值均小于5%,是一种可靠的流域梯级水库典型年选择方法。Because of the similarities and differences of hydrological characteristics in spatial-temporal distribution,climate and underlying surface etc among the cascade reservoirs in the watershed,the watershed hydrological typical year incomplete synchronization,so it＇s difficult to select the rational and typical and unified hydrological year in the watershed.Root mean square error smallest criterion is used in choosing the method of basin typical year,the 7 cascade reservoirs in the Wujing river valley are taken as the example to carry out the selection of typical years of water harvest,average and drought in the Wujing river valley.Research results indicate that the smallest criterion of Root-mean-square error can give overall consideration to the actual conditions of each hydropower station.The absolute value of average relative error of each runoff flow between the typical year and the designed year under the selected frequencies of various kinds is less than 5% so that this is the reliable method to select the cascade reservoir typical year in the watershed.

关 键 词：乌江流域 典型年 均方根误差最小准则 赤池准则 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]