气候变化对中国农业气候资源的影响  

Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-Climatic Resources in China

作　　者：汤绪[1] 杨续超[2,3] 田展[4] Gnter Fischer 潘婕[6] 

机构地区：[1]上海市气象局,上海200030 [2]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [3]浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州310017 [4]上海市气候中心,上海200030 [5]International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA) [6]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第10期1962-1968,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：NSFC-IIASA重大国际(地区)合作项目(编号:40921140410);国家自然科学基金(编号:40801043);国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目:“国际应用系统分析研究学会暑期青年科学家项目”(编号:41011140238)

摘　　要：气候变化将对我国的农业气候资源产生重要影响,评估其潜在影响可为制定未来农业区域发展和应对气候变化策略提供科学依据。本研究基于区域气候模式PRECIS在IPCC SRES A2和B2情景下21世纪末期(2071年-2100年)的气候预估数据,利用农业生态地带模型AEZ(Argo-ecological Zones)模拟气候变化对我国农业气候资源的可能影响。结果表明,在两种气候变化情景下,我国稳定≥10℃积温所反映的热量条件显著改善,由积温所反映出的种植制度也发生明显变化,各种植带界限明显北移。由于气温的升高,导致参考作物蒸散普遍增加。降水的增加使得西北地区干旱状况有所改善,生长期延长。我国东南部的中、南亚热带地区则由于降水过多而使得生长期有所缩短。It has been recognized that climate change has significant impacts on agro-climatic resources over China. The objective of the present study was to evaluate regional scale effects of climatic change on agro-climatic resources across China, so as to provide a comprehensive assessment of China’s potential thermal regime and aridity-humidity conditions under climate change scenarios. Projections of future climate during 2071-2100 from a high-resolution regional climate model-PRECIS （Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies） under two emission scenarios, SRES A2 （medium-high GHG emission pathway） and B2 （medium-low）, were used to drive the agro-ecological zones （AEZ） model to assess potential impacts of climate change on China’s thermal regime, reference evapotranspiration, humidity index, and length of growing period. Results show that the maximum air temperature and precipitation will increase by 4.26℃ and 14.81%, respectively, under A2 scenario at the end of 21st century. The spatial patterns of temperature change show greater warming in the northern part of China （especially northeast and northwest China） relative to that in the south and there will be more precipitation in southeast China. The thermal conditions indicated by accumulated temperature above 10℃will significantly improve, resulting in remarkable changes in accumulated temperature zones （ATZ） and corresponding cropping systems. The cultivation northern boundary will shift northward. Under A2 scenarios, the north boundary of winter wheat and 3 crops per year for rice ATZ will move northward more than 530 km and 360 km, respectively. Reference evapotranspiration is likely to generally increase across China due to rising temperature. Increases in precipitation could potentially mitigate drought conditions over arid areas in northwest China, Inner Mongolia, and the northwest Tibetan Plateau. The humidity index will slightly increase in the North China Plain and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Hunan, Jiangxi, and Fujian will

关 键 词：气候变化 农业气候资源 中国区域 PRECIS AEZ 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]