胶州湾地区近50年气候变化特征分析及未来趋势预估  

Analysis of Climate Change during the Period 1959-2008 and Climatic Projection during the Period 2011-2030 over the Jiaozhou Bay

作　　者：张军岩[1] 於琍 于格[3] 初子莹[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局科技与气候变化司,北京100081 [2]国家气候中心气候变化适应室,北京100081 [3]中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,海洋生态与环境教育部重点实验室,青岛266100 [4]北京市气象局,北京100089

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第10期1984-1990,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：青岛市基础研究计划(编号:08-1-3-11-JCH);中国气象局2010年气候变化专项(编号:2010-2200509);中央高校基本科研业务费青年教师科研基金项目(编号:841013027)

摘　　要：利用胶州湾地区7个气象站点逐日气温和降水观测资料以及MIROC3.2_hires-RegCM3模式输出结果分析了胶州湾地区1959年-2008年气候变化特征以及2011年-2030年该地区的气候预估结果。研究表明:①近50a,胶州湾地区年平均气温升高了1.65℃,线性增温率为0.33℃/10a,高于同期全国平均增温速率。季节平均气温的变化以冬季增温最为显著,夏季增温最小。但在1990年-2008年期间呈现增暖迅速特征,这一特点在20世纪90年代之后尤为显著,增温率为0.9℃/10a,可能与人类活动导致的热岛效应有关;②胶州湾近50a的年平均降水量总体呈减少趋势,倾向率为-19mm/a,同期降水日数也呈减少趋势,但暴雨日数变化不大,降水分布趋于集中。近20a,胶州湾地区降水量呈增加趋势,线性倾向率为85mm/10a,高于全国平均水平;③模式预估结果表明,未来20a胶州湾地区气温将进一步升高,增温速率为0.77℃/10a。降水量也有所增加,线性倾向率为49mm/10a。This study analyzed climate change on the basis of daily time series of climatic observations over the period 1959-2008 and projected data of the Model MIROC3.2_hires-RegCM3 over the period 2011-2030 over the Jiaozhou Bay. Results indicate that in general annual mean temperature over the Jiaozhou Bay increased by 1.65℃ at a rate of about 0.33℃/10a in recent 50 years. The increasing rate was much higher than the average of China. The most evident warming occurred in winter and the smallest change occurred in summer. The warming rate in spring was larger than that in winter during the period 1990-2008, showing a rate of 0.87℃/10a. There was no obvious change in temperature in summer for the study period. Changes in the maximum and minimum temperatures showed different increasing rates over the period 1959-2008, with the increasing rate of the minimum temperature higher than that of the maximum temperature, especially during the period 1990-2008. This was partly due to human activities. Annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend at a rate of 19 mm/a. Days of rainfall also decreased in this period, but there was no obvious trend in the torrential rain days, which means that the distribution pattern of annual precipitation has changed. Climate change over the Jiaozhou Bay for the period 2011-2030 was investigated based on the MIROC3.2_hires-RegCM3 Model. Results indicate that mean temperature will increase at a rate of 0.77℃/10a, and precipitation will also increase at a rate of 49 mm/10a. Furthermore, changing trends in temperature and rainfall over the Jiaozhou Bay are similar with those for the entire country. However, due to varying geographic factors and local climate, there were some unique characteristics in the region. Compared with the whole country, there was a lag of climate warming over the Jiaozhou Bay. Temperatures in spring increased significantly after the 1990s. Precipitation increased significantly over the latest 10 years. These results would be helpful for a greater understanding of the

关 键 词：气温 降水 气候变化 预估 胶州湾 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]