1961年至2007年江苏省高温气候特征分析  

Climatic Characteristics of High Temperatures in Jiangsu Province in Recent 50 Years

作　　者：刘梅[1] 彭晓燕 李进喜[1] 濮梅娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台,南京210008 [2]南通市气象局,南通226006

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第10期1991-1998,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：中国气象局研究型业务项目(编号:YW200603);江苏省气象局开放基金项目(编号:200704)

摘　　要：本文充分利用江苏省1961年-2007年高温资料,采用小波分析、气候倾向率等气候诊断方法,探讨了江苏省近50年高温的时空分布规律、气候变化趋势、周期性特征。结果表明:高温日数的地理分布呈东北-西南向逐渐递增,沿江苏南地区高温日明显高于东北部沿海地区;在年代际变化中,年高温日数明显的正距平期主要分布在20世纪60年代到70年代初和2001年-2007年,其中60年代到70年代初是高温日数相对偏多的时段,特别是长江以南地区,南京距平值达到25～30天,负距平期主要出现于70年代中期、80年代初～90年代中后期,其中70年代中期、1981年、1986年和2000年为负距平较强的时期,距平值为-6天;气候趋势上,沿江苏南地区高温日数年际变化呈增加趋势,除沿江苏南,其它地区高温日数年际变化整体呈减少趋势,江苏地区每10a高温日数增加或减少约0.3天;在周期分布上,江苏10a以上的周期都相对比较稳定且具有全域性,从长周期分析沿江以北近几年高温日数处于偏少的周期内,而沿江苏南处于增多周期内。各区域存在不同时间尺度年高温日数气候突变点,江苏西北部发生在1968年,江苏东北部发生在1970年、1983年、1988年,江淮地区发生在1972年、1975年、1982年,沿江苏南发生在1971年、1977年、1983年和2002年。Based on data of high temperature days during the period 1961-2007 in Jiangsu Province, climatic variation trends, periodicity features, and temporal-spatial distribution of high temperature days in the recent 50 years were analyzed by means of climatic trend and analysis of wavelets. Results show that the spatial distribution of high temperature days exhibited an increasing trend along the northeast to southwest, and the high temperature days in the southern region exceeded those in the northeastern coastal region. Among interannual changes, obvious positive departure periods occurred mainly from the 1960s to the early 1970s, and from 2001 to 2007. The number of high temperature days from the 1960s to the early 1970s was relatively higher. Especially in the region south of the Yangtze River, Nanjing, for instance, the departure was 25 to 30 days. Negative departure periods were in the middle 1970s, from the early 1980s to the early 1990s, and the middle and late 1990s. Obvious and strong negative departure periods were in the middle 1970s, 1981, 1986, and 2006, and the departure was minus 6 days. Considering general climate change trends, the annual number of high temperature days decreased in the north of the Yangtze River. The southern region of the Yangtze River showed an increasing trend. The value of decreasing or increasing days was about 0.3 per decade. It was found that in the periodicity distribution, variation periods of above 10a demonstrated the striking features of stability and integrity. High temperature days in the region south of Jiangsu and along the Yangtze River lied in the rising period according to long time period in late years, but for regions north of the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province the high temperature days lied in a gradually decreasing period according to long time accumulated data analysis. Abrupt climate changes in annual high temperature days can be found in different temporal scales in all regions of the province. In northwestern Jiangsu, changes occurred in 1968. In the nor

关 键 词：高温 时空分布 气候趋势系数 小波分析 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]