近50年来疏勒河月径流量影响因子分析  

Influencing factors of runoff in Shule River during the past 50 years

作　　者：胡清静[1] 张钰[1] 李建伟[2] 刘俊琢[1] 巩俊成[1] 孙非非[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州730000 [2]中国海洋大学海洋地球科学学院,青岛266100

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2011年第10期143-148,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

摘　　要：以疏勒河流域为研究对象,依据1957～2008年径流、温度、降水资料,采用逐步回归分析法,分析疏勒河月径流影响因子的主次程度。结果表明:在非汛期(10月～次年5月),月径流最大影响因子是基流;在汛期(6～9月),月径流主要影响因子是温度和降水,其中6月份月径流最大影响因子是当月降水;7月份,由于冰雪融水的增加,月径流最大影响因子是当月温度;8月份月径流最大影响因子是当月温度和基流;9月份,由于1987年的气候突变,在1957～1986年,9月份月径流最大影响因子是当月降水,在1987～2008年,当月温度的影响程度增大,甚至超过了当月降水的影响。Shule River basin was studied by using stepwise regression analysis to analyze the main influencing factors of monthly runoff based on the base flow,temperature and precipitation data from 1957 to 2008.The results showed that the monthly runoff was mainly affected by the base flow in the non-flood season（October to next May） while it was mainly affected by the monthly temperature、the monthly precipitation in the flood season（June to September）.The monthly runoff in June and July was mainly affected by the monthly precipitation and the monthly temperature respectively.However,the monthly runoff was mainly affected by both the monthly temperature and base flow in August.Moreover,due to the climate change of 1987,the runoff was mainly affected by the monthly precipitation form 1957 to 1986 while it was affected by the monthly temperature between 1987 and 2008 in September.

关 键 词：疏勒河 径流量 因子分析 

分 类 号：P331[天文地球—水文科学]