基于数值预报产品的面雨量分析与检验  

Analysis and Test of Numerical Prediction in Areal Precipitation

作　　者：张玉琴[1] 吴朝野[2] 何国平[1] 毛家勋 姜波[1] 尹雪梅[1] 何朝辉[3] 

机构地区：[1]四川省攀枝花市气象局,攀枝花617000 [2]清华大学物理系,北京100084 [3]二滩水电开发有限责任公司,成都610051

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2011年第3期60-64,共5页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：四川省气象局应用开发科研课题项目2006-16

摘　　要：通过分析检验2007～2009年5～10月T213、德国、日本数值模式在雅砻江流域1～4区的面平均雨量——即面雨量预报发现,3个模式面雨量有无TS评分的差异较小,随着面雨量量级的加大各模式的差异变大。多模式集成预报总体上优于单模式,小雨级、中雨级优势更明显。二滩电站入库流量与面雨量集成预报值的相关系数在全流域明显低于与实测值的相关系数,但预报值与实测值的波动趋势几乎是一致的,仍对预报有较好的参考价值。The analysis of 2007-2009 May-Oct T213,Germany and Japanese numerical models of average precipitation in Yalong river watershed 1-4 areas-namely,the areal precipitation reveals that differences of yes-no TS scores among the three modes are not obvious,and increase as the magnitude of precipitation levels up.Integrated multi-modes consensus prediction of areal precipitation is better than single mode,especially for light and moderate rainfall.Correlation coefficients of multi-mode prediction and reservoir inflow of Ertan are smaller than that of measured rainfall and the inflow,but they share the similar fluctuation tendency,still providing proper reference.

关 键 词：面雨量 数值预报 TS评分 多模式集成 入库流量 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]