青藏高原兹格塘错流域50年来湖泊水量对气候变化响应的模拟研究  

Simulation Study on Hydrological Response of Water Quantity to Climate Change in Zigetang Lake of Tibetan Plateau During the Past 50 Years

作　　者：沈华东[1,2] 于革[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,江苏南京210008 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《地球科学与环境学报》2011年第3期282-287,共6页Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-338-2);科技部水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2009ZX07101-013-03)

摘　　要：运用数值模拟建立青藏高原兹格塘错流域土壤、植被、气候等的空间和属性数据库;接着,借助分布式流域尺度水文模型(SWAT模型),对兹格塘错1956—2006年间的流量进行模拟实验;最后,反演50年来兹格塘错流域水文过程,测试流域温度、降水和蒸发组合的敏感因子对湖泊水量变化的效应,探讨50年来湖泊水量对气候变化的响应。模拟实验的边界条件设置为自然地形、土壤、植被覆盖,其中土壤资料包括有机质含量、粒径等理化参数。模拟结果表明:兹格塘错的年平均流量为6.3m3/s,流量高峰集中在8月至10月,并且由于融雪补给的关系,3月出现另一个流量高峰;模拟结果与遥感解译所得到的结果吻合较好。敏感实验表明:兹格塘错流域内温度、降水和蒸发组合的敏感因子实验具有高原特征,即高原湖泊的水文过程和湖泊流量变化有着较为敏感的响应关系;兹格塘错流量受降水的影响最大,随着降水的增加,流量有所增加;在温度升高的情况下,流域蒸发量增加速度大,兹格塘错流量增加的效应不明显,而在冷湿模式下,流域蒸发量降低,兹格塘错流量增加显著。The spatial and attribute databases of soil,vegetation,climate,etc.,were built by the means of numerical simulation in Zigetang Lake of Tibetan Plateau;and then,the flows of Zigetang Lake from 1956 to 2006 were simulated by the means of the distributed hydrological model in basin scale（SWAT model）;finally,the hydrological processes in Zigetang Lake during the past 50 years were inverted,the effects of sensitive factors including temperature,precipitation and evaporation on the change of lake water quantity were measured,and the responses of lake water quantity to climate change during the past 50 years were discussed.The boundary conditions for running the model were natural topography,soil and vegetation cover,and the soil data included organic matter content,soil particle size and other physical and chemical parameters.The results showed that annual average discharge was 6.3 m3/s and the peak of discharge appeared from August to October,and there was another peak in March because of the supplement of thaw;the simulation result coincided with the remote sensing interpretation;the response of hydrological process to lake discharge was relatively sensitive in plateau lake,such as Zigetang Lake;the discharge in Zigetang Lake was mostly influenced by precipitation,and the discharge increased significantly with the increase of precipitation;the discharge increased insignificantly and the evapotranspiration increased fast when the temperature was high when the temperature increased;however,the discharge in Zigetang Lake increased significantly and the evapotranspiration decreased under the condition of cold and wet model.

关 键 词：气候变化 降水 流量 水文响应 数值模拟 SWAT模型 兹格塘错 青藏高原 

分 类 号：P343.3[天文地球—水文科学]