基于Clayton Copula函数的二维Gumbel模型及其在海洋平台设计中的应用  

Bivariate Gumbel Distribution Based on Clayton Copula and Its Application in Offshore Platform Design

作　　者：董胜[1] 周冲[1] 陶山山[1] 薛东升[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266100 [2]海洋石油工程股份有限公司工程项目管理中心,天津300452

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第10期117-120,共4页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50879085);新世纪优秀人才资助计划项目(NCET-07-0778)资助

摘　　要：根据Gumbel分布和Clayton Copula函数构造出二维Gumbel Clayton Copula分布,根据渤海海域某观测站测得的1970—1993年年最大波高及风速,具体介绍该二维Gumbel模型在海洋工程设计中的使用方法。通过导管架平台基底剪力计算表明,使用该二维Gumbel模型所得的50a一遇剪力值降低了37%,对于边际油田,可以降低荷载设计标准,从而减少海洋工程的投资费用。This paper introduces bivariate Gumbel Clayton Copula distribution based on Clayton Copula function. This bivariate Gumbel Clayton Copula distribution is discussed according to a 24 a observed data. The data is measured by an oceanographic station in the Bohai area from 1970 to 1993, which contains annual extreme wave height and wind speed. Design parameters combinations are presented for the computation of the jacket platform base shear. The results reveal that the loads design criterion can be reasonably lowered by the joint probability distribution method comparing with traditional method. The whole engineering investment can be reduced in the construction of marine structures.

关 键 词：Clayton COPULA函数 二维Gumbel分布 联合概率 海洋平台 

分 类 号：TE951[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]