上海市突发环境污染事故风险区划  

Shanghai environmental accidents risk regionalization

作　　者：薛鹏丽[1] 曾维华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2011年第10期1743-1750,共8页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家“863”项目(2007AA06A404)

摘　　要：环境风险区划是区域布局型环境风险管理及环境风险分区管理的重要手段.本研究在环境风险系统理论的指导下,借鉴"自上而下"和"自下而上"传统区划方对上海市突发环境风险进行区划研究.上海市突发环境风险区划中"自上而下"环境风险一级区的划分是依据上海市1990～2008年突发污染事故历史时空格局获得;而"自下而上"是通过构建上海市风险区划指标体系,在对指标进行概念模型量化的基础上,运用基于遗传算法的K均值聚类在最小区划单元进行聚类区划,并依据上海市政府宏观规划对聚类后的图斑碎块进行科学性和实用性调整,获得上海市突发环境污染事故风险亚区和小区;将上海市突发环境风险一级区及亚区和小区集成分析,实现上海市突发环境污染事故风险综合区划.结果表明:上海市突发环境污染事故风险区划包含2个风险一级区,5个风险亚区和21个风险小区,客观揭示了上海市突发环境污染事故风险的空间分布规律.针对上海市布局型环境风险和不同风险区提出相应的管理措施,为上海市综合减灾降险和风险管理决策提供科学依据.Environmental risk regionalization is an important method for regional environmental risk management.Based on the theory of environmental risk system,the traditional regionalization method which combining the top-down with bottom-up was adopted to analyze the Shanghai environmental accidents risk.The zoning regions were formed through the space variation of Shanghai history environmental accidents.Furthermore,the indicator system of environmental risk regionalization was established to realize the risk on the basis of index quantification,and the K-means algorithm was used to conduct the similarity combination of smallest regionalization units.After adjusting the cluster fragments,the environmental risk sub-regions were obtained.Taking into account the top-down and bottom-up regionalization results,the integrated zoning of Shanghai environmental risk was achieved.Shanghai environmental accident risk regionalization comprised two big regions,five sub-regions and twenty one districts.The corresponding suggestion to different type of environmental risk regions were also put forward in the paper to guide Shanghai environmental risk management and accident emergency response.

关 键 词：突发环境污染事故 上海 环境风险区划 自上而下 自下而上 基于遗传算法的K均值聚类 环境风险分区管理 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]