房价拉动地价,还是地价推高房价?——基于1998～2009年中国房地产市场数据的实证研究  

House Price and Land Price——An Empirical Research Based on Real Estate Market in China(1998～2009)

作　　者：张同龙[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学经济学院经济学系,天津300387 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《经济管理》2011年第10期121-126,共6页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划项目"未来几年我国价格波动趋势及其动因研究"(TJYY08-2-071);国家社科基金青年项目"我国农村村庄治理对公共基础设施投资影响的实证研究"(11CGL058)

摘　　要：近年来,房价与地价的关系一直是学术界与政府决策层密切关注的重要问题。本文通过建立向量误差修正模型,对中国1998～2009年间房价和地价关系进行实证研究。结果发现,房价和地价之间存在长期均衡关系,其格兰杰因果关系走向是房价影响地价,而不是相反。也就是说,房地产的总需求扩张仍是此阶段房价上涨的根源,所谓"地价推涨房价"的说法得不到实证支持。我们还发现,在解释这一期间房价波动中,货币政策影响是最需要注意的因素。In recent years, the relationship between house price and land price has been a hot topic in China. This paper constructs a Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the Chinese quarterly data of the Selling Price Indices of Residential Buildings （ SPIRB ） and the Land Transaction Price Indices of Residential Buildings （LTPIRB） from 1998 to 2009. We find some strong evidences to ascertain a long-term equilibrium relation between LTPIRB and SPIRB. The direction of Granger causality relation is the SPIRB cause the LTPIRB. And the direction of price conduction is from the house＇s to the land＇s, not from the land＇s to the house＇s. So, it tells us that the cause of the inflation of house price is the expansion of demand. Thus the so-called＇ the land price pushing the house price＇is not true. The money policy may be the most useful factor to explain the fluctuations of house price.

关 键 词：房价 价格传导 向量误差修正模型 价格指数 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]