财政政策对农村居民消费产生了非线性效应吗?  

Did the Non-linear Effect of Fiscal Policies on the Rural Residents'Consumption Occur?

作　　者：储德银[1] 闫伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]东北财经大学财税学院,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《经济管理》2011年第10期167-173,共7页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"居民边际消费倾向与扩大国内消费问题研究"(10CJY016)

摘　　要：财政政策对农村居民消费的非线性效应是中国城乡二元社会背景下的特有研究命题。本文对于这一问题的研究不仅能为客观评价我国财政政策实践提供理论依据,还可以为后危机时代政府未来财政政策抉择提供全新思路。本文研究发现,财政收入和支出在正常时期对农村居民消费表现为凯恩斯效应,但财政收入的凯恩斯效应并不显著;在紧缩和扩张两个特殊时期,财政收入和支出对农村居民消费均产生了显著的非凯恩斯效应;就特殊时期财政政策对农村居民消费的总效应而言,财政收入在紧缩和扩张两个特殊时期对农村居民消费的总影响均为非凯恩斯效应,而财政支出在紧缩和扩张时期对农村居民消费的总效应并不一致。其中,在扩张时期表现为凯恩斯效应,但紧缩时期的总效应则无法确定。The nonlinear effect of fiscal policies on the rural residents＇consumption is a specific research problem in China＇s urban and rural dual society. Studying this problem can not only provide practical evidences for the evaluation of China＇s fiscal policy practice, but also can provide a new idea for the future choices of the Government fiscal policy in post-crisis times. Our researching has shown ： Firstly, the performance of fiscal revenue and expenditure on the rural residents＇consumption is the Keynesian effects in normal times, but the Keynesian effect of fiscal revenue is not significant. Secondly, in the two special periods of contraction and expansion, the effects of fiscal revenue and expenditure on the rural residents＇consumption are the significant non-Keynesian effects. Thirdly, in terms of the total effect of fiscal policy on the rural residents＇consumption during the special period, the total effect of fiscal revenue on the rural residents＇consumption is the non-Keynesian effects in the two special periods of contraction and expansion, however, the overall impact of expenditure is the Keynesian effect during the expansion periods, that is, the Keynesian effect of fiscal expenditure is in a dominant position during the expansion. But the total effect of fiscal expenditure on the rural residents＇consumption can not be finalized in the tightening times.

关 键 词：财政政策 农村居民消费 非线性效应 动态面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F812.80[经济管理—财政学]