降水变化和人类活动对延河流域径流影响的定量评估  

Quantification of Impacts of Precipitation Change and Human Activities on Streamflow in the Yanhe River Basin

作　　者：邱临静[1,2] 郑粉莉[1,2] 尹润生 俞方圆[4] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学林学院,杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院-水利部水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,杨凌712100 [3]Department of Forestry,Michigan State University,East Lansing 48824,USA [4]西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,杨凌712100

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2011年第5期357-362,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：科技部“973计划”项目(2007CB407201);农业部“948”项目(2010-S16)

摘　　要：利用Mann-Kendall突变检验法对延河流域1952—2008年降水量与甘谷驿站径流量进行分析,并以1952—1994年为基准期,定量分析1995—2008年降水变化和人类活动对径流的影响。结果表明:57年来延河流域正常降水发生概率达80.7%,径流年型以偏枯和枯水年为主;年降水量和径流量均呈减少趋势,突变分别发生在1995和2005年;与1952—1994年相比,1995—2008年的降水量和径流量较基准期分别减少11.1%和27.3%;降水变化和人类活动对径流减少的贡献率分别为46.2%和53.8%。Based on the observational precipitation and streamflow data in the Yanhe River basin during 1952-2008,the Mann-Kendall test was applied to investigate the trends of precipitation and streamflow.The effects of precipitation change and human activities on streamflow were quantified during the period of 1995-2008.The results indicate that the normal precipitation year accounted for 80.7 %,and most years were charactered by lower and low flow.Annual precipitation and streamflow both exhibited decreasing trends,and their abrupt changes occurred in 1995 and 2005,respectively.Compared with the baseline period of 1952-1994,the reduction of precipitation and streamflow in the period 1995-2008 was 11.1% and 27.3%,respectively;precipitation change contributed 46.2% to streamflow reduction,while human activities resulted in 53.8% of streamflow reduction.

关 键 词：延河流域 径流 降水 人类活动 影响 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]