LULUCF在《京都议定书》履约中的作用  

Roles of LULUCF Activities in Kyoto Protocol Compliance

作　　者：张小全[1] 

机构地区：[1]大自然保护协会中国部,北京100600

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2011年第5期369-377,共9页Climate Change Research

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项课题"我国陆地生态系统固碳潜力与速率的综合模拟与集成分析"(XDA05050602)

摘　　要：根据主要附件I缔约方2011年向《联合国气候变化框架公约》递交的1990—2009年国家温室气体(GHG)排放清单数据,包括报告的《京都议定书》土地利用、土地利用变化和林业(LULUCF)活动数据,对其LULUCF GHG源/汇趋势、《京都议定书》缔约方LULUCF相关活动在履约中的作用进行系统的对比分析,对缔约方会议确定的森林管理活动汇清除的限额进行评估。分析表明,1990—2009年,附件I缔约方LULUCF总体表现为净GHG汇清除,且总体上呈波浪式增加趋势,20年增加了65.9%,但年际波动较大。1990年LULUCF汇清除相当于GHG排放总量的7.41%,2009年上升到13.68%。《京都议定书》第一承诺期的最初两年(2008—2009年),各缔约方每年可从合格的LULUCF活动中获得2.38亿t CO2当量的汇清除,相当于这些缔约方基准年源排放的1.91%,可抵消其减限排额的45%。汇清除主要来自森林管理活动,而其他活动的汇清除所占份额很小。LULUCF活动使《京都议定书》的实施效果大打折扣,为一些缔约方过多地使用森林管理活动的汇清除来完成其减限排指标提供了机会,特别是俄罗斯、日本和意大利等国。这为目前正在谈判的第二承诺期LULUCF规则,特别是如何利用森林管理汇清除的规则敲响警钟。Based on the updated 1990-2009 national greenhouse gas（GHG） inventories including Kyoto Protocol（KP） LULUCF-relevant data submitted by Annex I parties in 2011,GHG removals/emissions in LULUCF sector and LULUCF activities in the first two years（2008-2009） of the first commitment period of the KP were analyzed,and the cap for forest management activities in Decision 16/CMP.1 was retrospected.LULUCF sector of Annex I parties represents a net GHG removal on the whole,which increased by 65.9% from 1990 to 2009,with a significant inter-annual fluctuation.The net GHG removals of LULUCF sector in Annex I parties accounts for 7.41% of the total GHG emissions without LULUCF in 1990 and 13.68% in 2009.In 2008-2009,KP parties can claim a credit of 238 million ton CO2 equivalent per year from eligible KP LULUCF activities mainly from forest management（FM）.The total net GHG removal of those KP parties accounts for 1.91% of the total GHG emissions in the base year without LULUCF.This means that about 45% of emission reduction committed by these parties can be offset by the net GHG removals of LULUCF activities.Analysis also indicates that the FM cap as contained in Decision 16/CMO.1 was overestimated by 59%,which allows some parties able to excessively use FM for their KP compliance,such as Russia,Italy and Japan.This may provide a caution to on-going negotiation of accounting rule for FM in the second commitment period.

关 键 词：LULUCF 温室气体源/汇 《京都议定书》 履约 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]