约束国债借款的理论机制分析——基于当前借款约束模型的研究趋势追踪  

Analysis on Mechanism of Government Borrowing Constraint ——A Research Based on Present-value Borrowing Constraint Model

作　　者：何代欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《广西财经学院学报》2011年第5期1-5,共5页Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中国博士后基金面上资助项目"多重情境目标约束下中国碳减排的财税政策研究"(20100480405);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"扩大内需的财税政策研究"(09&ZD31)

摘　　要：国债规模过大是一直困扰各国政府的财政难题。是否存在国债借款约束的理论机制,用以指导债务规模,化解债务风险?研究发现,国债借款约束至少包含三个关键方面:财政收支不平衡可以有效测量、债权方的预期有必要予以考虑、国债规模必须收敛。微观预期和财富状况是国债借款的基础,而债务收敛和相关经济变量作用是债务规模变化的主要诱因。结论认为,以当前借款约束模型为基础的国债借款约束机制是衡量国债规模可持续性的有力工具。Oversized scale of government debt is a financial problem troubling various countries. Are there theoretical mechanisms of government borrowing constraint to guide the debt scale and resolve the debt risk？ This study finds that government borrowing constraint contains at least three key factors： fiscal imbalance can be effectively measured; creditors＇ expectations need to be taken into account; government debt must be converged. Micro-expectation and stock of wealth are the basis for government debt borrowing, and debt convergence and relevant economic variable effect are the major causes of debt scale＇s change. It＇s concluded that the borrowing constraint mechanism based on present-value borrowing constraint model is a powerful measure for the sustainability of government debt scale.

关 键 词：国债 借款约束 理论机制 当前借款约束模型 

分 类 号：F810.5[经济管理—财政学]