公众为何参与股市:经济增长、货币政策还是市场状态?  

Why Does the Public Participate in the Stock Market: Economic Growth, Monetary Policy or Market Status?

作　　者：刘莎莎[1] 孔东民[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院金融系 [2]华中科技大学经济学院金融系

出　　处：《投资研究》2011年第8期23-37,共15页Review of Investment Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"投资者行为与资本市场稳定性研究"(70803013);中央高校基本科研业务费(HUST:2010AW023)的资助

摘　　要：基于中国证券登记结算公司提供的31省投资者开户数目,本文重点研究经济增长、货币政策以及金融市场发展对公众股市有限参与行为的影响。研究表明,经济发展与社会互动显著提高股市参与度,全国货币量和信贷水平增加(宽松的货币政策)并未对股市参与起促进作用,相反房地产市场发展显著降低股市参与度。此外,较高的市场收益显著提升投资者参与股市的程度,但投资风险特别是短期投资风险并未阻碍公众参与股市,这反映了我国公众投资的投机特点。本文研究结论为我国监管部门提供了明晰的政策建议,即加大投资者教育并提升正确投资理念。Based on the new stock accounts of 31 provinces from China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, we study how the economic growth, monetary policy and market status affect the participation in stock market of the public. Our findings show that, l） the economic growth and social interaction significantly increase the participation ratio; 2） the monetary supply and credit level have no significant impact on the participation ratio; and 3） there is no significant relationship between the long term market return and the participation of the public, however the relation is significant in short term. This is consistent with the speculation. We offer clear policy implication in this paper, that is, the regulator needs to enhance the investor education and investment perspective.

关 键 词：有限参与 经济增长 货币政策 市场状态 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F224