1949—2009年中国粮食生产发展与空间分布演变研究  

Change of Grain Production and its Spatial Distribution in China during the 1949-2009 Periods

作　　者：张军[1] 覃志豪[1,2] 李文娟[2] 尤飞[2] 张文博[2] 张伟[2] 程敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际地球系统科学研究所,南京210093 [2]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2011年第24期13-20,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划"973计划"项目"气候变化对我国粮食生产系统的影响机理与适应机制研究"(2010CB951500);课题4"气候变化驱动的我国粮食生产系统空间数值模拟预测研究"(2010CB951504)

摘　　要：为了揭示1949年以来中国粮食生产在不同时段的发展变化特点和和总体演变趋势,本研究运用描述性统计分析、GIS、空间分析等方法,在省域层面对中国粮食生产发展和空间分布的演变规律进行了研究。结果表明:1949年以来(1949—2009年),中国粮食总产、单产以及人均产量循着"增长—波动—增长"的轨迹向前发展,而粮食播种面积却表现出波动下降的趋势;就生产比重而言,稻谷是波动中下降的,但它在粮食作物中的比例仍然是最高的;玉米和小麦生产比重是波动上升的;粮食生产重心向东北偏移了148km;各年代粮食产量不仅存在着显著的空间相关性,而且相近省域的空间集聚程度增加,集聚效应也越来越明显,对于未来粮食区域发展格局将有较大影响。In order to reveal characteristics of grain farming in different periods since 1949 for future policy formulation in China,a thorough examination has been done in this research.An integrated approach combining descriptive statistics with GIS spatial analysis is used to analyze the development and spatial distribution of grain production in provincial level of China.The results showed that the development of total grain production,grain yield and grain production per capita in China followed the pattern of ＂ growth-fluctuation-growth ＂,while the change of grain sown were shown a trend of declination.Rice,corn and wheat were the 3 most important grain crops in China.Proportion of rice production to the total was steadily declining in spite of the highest among the 3 crops.As a contrast,proportion of corn and wheat production was increasing accordingly in recent decades.Spatial focus of grain farming had shifted 148 km northeastward since 1949 in China.Very high correlation could be observed in the spatial distribution of grain production among different periods,which indicated that spatial aggregation was an obvious feature in Chinese grain farming.Therefore policy-making for grain farming should pay attention to this spatial feature for aggregation in order to achieve maximum of spatial efficiency.

关 键 词：粮食生产 空间分布 GIS 空间分析 

分 类 号：F304.5[经济管理—产业经济]