应用时间序列分析法预测南昌县二化螟发生程度  

Prediction of Occurrence Degrees of Chilo suppressalis in Nanchang County Applying Time Series Analysis

作　　者：金伟 陈伟[2] 魏洪义[2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌市植保站,南昌330008 [2]江西农业大学农学院,南昌330045

出　　处：《江西植保》2011年第3期111-114,共4页Jiangxi Plant Protection

基　　金：江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ09169);江西省农业厅资助项目(20040508)

摘　　要：根据江西省南昌县1980-2009年二化螟发生的历史资料,应用马尔科夫链方法和周期图分析预测法对该县未来2年二化螟的发生程度进行预测,预测2010年二化螟的发生程度为2级,中等偏轻发生,发生面积2.98万hm2~3.54万hm2,2010年实际发生2级,与预测值吻合。预测2011年为3级,中等发生,发生面积为3.55万hm2~4.10万hm2。Based on the database of Chilo suppressalis occurrence in Nanchang County of Jiangxi Province from 1980 to 2009,Markov chains transition matrix and period extrapolation were applied to predict the occurrence area of Chilo supperssalis in the County.The results showed that the occurrence degree for the insect would be grade two（occurring moderately to slightly） in 2010,namely occurring area will be between 2.98 hm2 and 3.54 hm2.Actually,the occurrence degree did be grade two in this county,which was the same as the prediction.The moth＇s occurrence degrees would be grade 3（occurring moderately） in 2011,i.e.,occurring area will be between 3.55 hm2 and 4.10 hm2.

关 键 词：二化螟 发生面积 预测 时间序列 南昌 

分 类 号：S431[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] S435.112.1[农业科学—植物保护]