基于压力-状态-响应模型的吐鲁番地区生态安全动态评价  

Assessment of the Eco-security Based on PSR in Turpan

作　　者：孟优[1,2] 丁建丽[2,3] 徐娜[1,2] 张飞[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046 [3]新疆大学研究生院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2011年第9期1674-1679,共6页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40861020;40961008);霍英东教育基金项目(121018);教育部科学研究重点项目(030012);新疆自然科学基金项目(200821128)

摘　　要：【目的】研究区域生态安全在不同时期的动态变化。【方法】在国内外已有研究基础上,基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)概念模型,选取26项指标,构建吐鲁番地区生态安全评价指标体系。利用层次分析法确定各项指标的权重,采用综合指数评价法从时间尺度上(2000～2009年)对历史文化资源丰富的吐鲁番地区生态安全进行定量评估。【结果】吐鲁番地区生态安全综合指数从2000年0.381增长到2009年的0.512,研究时间尺度内的生态安全综合指数变化趋势方程为Y_3=0.016 X+0.346 4(通过显著性检验,R^2=0.956 6),生态安全整体水平呈上升趋势,2000～2005年为临界安全状态,2006～2009年为较安全状态。从三个子系统看,对吐鲁番地区生态安全的贡献依次为:系统压力>系统响应>系统状态。【结论】依据评价结果及吐鲁番地区现状,为吐鲁番地区的生态建设及管理提供科学依据。[ Objective ] The purpose of this project was to study the dynamic change of regional ecological security during the different periods of time. [ Method ] The present study, based on the previous research work done at home and abroad, selected 26 indexes from Turpan and built ecological security index （ESII） system for Turpan with the pressure - state - response （PSR） model. The weights of the indices were determined by using analytical hierarchy process （ AHP）, and Turpan＇s ecological security situation from 2000 -2009 was assessed quantitatively with integrating index evaluation method. [ Result] The results showed that the ecological security integrate index （ESII） in Turpan increased from 0.38l in 2000 to 0. 512 in 2009, the ESII trend equation is Y3 = 0. 016 X ＋ 0. 346 4 （ through the significant test, R^2 = 0. 956 6）, and the ESII tend to increase continually in the past 10 years, critical safe state from 2000 to 2005 and relative safe state from 2006 to 2009. The affecting contribution on ecological security of Turpan in order of importance is the system pressure 〉 the system reponse 〉 the system state. [ Conclusion ] Based on the evaluation results and status of Turpan, this article puts forward some scientific basis for the construction and the management of the ecological environment.

关 键 词：区域生态安全 PSR模型 层次分析法 吐鲁番地区 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学]