城市轨道投资的经济和就业影响——以北京市为例  

Impact on the Economy and Employment of Urban Rail Transit Investment A Case Study of Beijing

作　　者：刘昌义[1] 潘家华[2] 张莹[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京100005

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第5期19-21,71,共4页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：世界观察研究所和中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所项目"中国绿色发展与绿色就业研究"成果

摘　　要：城市轨道交通是可持续交通的重要组成部分,"十二五"期间中国的轨道交通将迎来新一轮的快速发展。以北京市为例,对北京城市轨道交通2011～2020年间的发展做相应的情景假设,并利用投入产出方法对北京城市轨道交通投资可能带来的经济和就业带动效应进行定量分析。匡算结果表明:"十二五"和"十三五"期间,北京市轨道交通总投资将达到5000亿元和4450亿元左右,可拉动的经济将达到26836亿元,可拉动就业人数约为438万人。The urban rail transit system is an important part of the sustainable transportation. China has entered a new era of the development of urban rail transit in the 12th Five-year. The urban rail transit in Beijing was studied,the possible investment scenarios during 2011 - 2020 was forecast, and the possible impact on the economy and employment was quantitatively analyzed. The main results are as follows ： 1 ） during 2011 - 2015 and 2016 - 2020, the total fixed investment on urban rail transit in Beijing will reach 500 billion and 445 billion yuan respectively; 2 ） This investment can create GDP as much as 2684 billion yuan during 2011 - 2020; 3 ） This investment will bring about 1.55 million direct unit jobs and 2.83 million indirect unit jobs during 2011 - 2020,4.38 million unit jobs in total.

关 键 词：城市交通 城市轨道交通 投入产出 投资 经济 就业 北京 

分 类 号：F570[经济管理—产业经济]