灰色系统理论在果树产地气象生态适宜性评估中的应用初探  

Preliminary Study on Comprehensive Evaluation of the Weather Ecology Suitability in Fruit Production Area with the Gray System Theory

作　　者：牛侯艳[1] 樊保国[1] 梁立峰[2] 李建国[2] 

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学生命科学学院,山西临汾041000 [2]华南农业大学园艺学院,广州510642

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2011年第22期281-285,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：山西省自然基金课题(2006011087)

摘　　要：为了对果树产地气象生态适宜性进行综合评估,笔者应用灰色关联分析法,以广东省从化等7个县(市)淮枝荔枝主要产地连续20年(1961—1982年)的产量资料和相应年份的气象资料为材料,对淮枝荔枝产地气象生态适宜性进行评估。结果表明,与"理想产地"气象生态条件相似的产地排列顺序为:从化>惠东>花县>罗定>深圳>斗门>惠来,从化淮枝荔枝产地与"理想产地"最为接近(r1=0.9418),最适宜栽培淮枝荔枝。灰色关联度分析可以定量地评估淮枝荔枝产地气象生态适宜性,其结果与各产地的实际一致。为客观评价果树产地气象生态适宜性、进行适地适栽提供了一种计算简单、结果直观、准确可靠的分析方法。In order to study on comprehensive evaluation of the weather ecology suitability in fruit field,based on the output materials in the continuous 20 years（1961-1982） and the weather materials in the relate years from the major Huaizhi litchi fields of Conghua and 6 other counties in Guangdong Province,the feasibility of the application of the relational grade analysis of Grey System Theory to the weather ecology suitableness of 7 Huaizhi litchi fields,including Conghua County was evaluated.The results showed that the order of the weather ecology conditions were similar to ＇ ideal state ＇ was：Conghua Huidong Huaxian Luoding Shenzhen Doumen Huilai,Conghua（r 1 =0.9418） was most closed to the ＇ ideal state ＇ and the most suitable growing area,the grey relational grade analysis could estimate the weather ecology suitableness of each Huaizhi litchi field quantitatively,and the conclusion was corresponding with the fact of each field.It provided a kind of analysis method which was easy-calculating,direct-seeing and exact and reliable for objectively evaluating the weather ecology suitableness of fruit field and growing the right plants in the right places.

关 键 词：果树 荔枝 产地 气象生态适宜性 灰色关联度分析 综合评估 

分 类 号：Q142[生物学—生态学]