淮河流域农业干旱对粮食产量的影响分析  

Influences of agricultural drought on food production in Huaihe River Basin

作　　者：许朗[1] 欧真真[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《水利经济》2011年第5期56-59,74,共4页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项<淮河流域旱灾治理关键技术研究>(200901026);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资助项目<气候变化对区域粮食生产的影响及农业应对策略>(KYT201005)

摘　　要：干旱是制约我国粮食生产的主要因素,严重影响了农产品的生产和粮食安全。以受干旱影响程度较重的淮河流域为研究对象,通过对历史旱情资料的统计分析表明:流域农业干旱灾情随年代的发展逐渐加重,且不同行政区域之间存在较大差异。利用相关数据实证检验了1999～2008年间流域内农业干旱灾害对粮食生产的影响。结果表明,农业干旱灾害对粮食生产具有明显的影响,并提出了相应的政策建议。该分析结果可为淮河流域农业防灾减灾体系建设和粮食安全提供些许的参考和借鉴。Drought is the main factor for restricting the grain yield in China and has serious impact on agricultural products and food security.The Huaihe River Basin seriously suffered by drought was taken as a study case.The analysis of the statistical data of historical drought disasters indicated that the drought disaster became more and more serious over time and there was large difference between the administrative areas.The influences of agricultural drought disasters on the grain yield in the river basin from 1999 to 2008 were verified by the empirical tests on the relevant data.The results show that the agricultural drought disasters have obvious influences on the grain yield.Some policy suggestions are proposed.It can provide reference for the food security and the agricultural disaster prevention system of Huaihe River Basin.

关 键 词：淮河流域 农业干旱 粮食安全 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]