基于可靠度的黄河下游堤防工程渗流稳定分析  

Analysis of reliability-based seepage stability of embankment engineering of lower Yellow River

作　　者：张秀勇[1,2] 花剑岚 杨洪祥[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院岩土工程研究所,江苏南京210024 [2]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096 [3]南京市水利规划设计院有限责任公司,江苏南京210016 [4]济南黄河河务局,山东济南250032

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第5期536-539,共4页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50778063)

摘　　要：将可靠性理论应用于黄河下游堤防工程的渗流稳定分析,根据与Monte-Carlo方法相结合的有限单元法求解单元堤段渗流稳定的基本原理,基于黄河下游堤防渗透破坏的特点,建立了黄河堤防渗透破坏计算模型,介绍了基于Monte-Carlo方法的有限单元法求解典型堤防断面渗透破坏概率的计算步骤.最后利用基于Monte-Carlo方法的有限单元法分析程序计算分析了黄河下游典型堤防断面的渗流稳定性,计算结果对黄河下游堤防工程的除险加固决策具有参考价值.The reliability theory was applied to seepage stability analysis of embankments of the lower Yellow River.Through introducing the principles of Monte-Carlo method into finite element seepage modeling of embankments,a calculated model for seepage analysis of embankments of the lower Yellow River was established based on the characteristics of seepage failure of embankments of the lower Yellow River,and the calculation steps were described.The seepage stability of typical embankment sections was analyzed using the model,and the risk probabilities were evaluated.The calculated results can provide valuable references for decision making of danger removal of embankments of the lower Yellow River.

关 键 词：黄河下游堤防 失事概率 有限单元法 MONTE-CARLO方法 

分 类 号：TD853.34[矿业工程—金属矿开采]