基于数据场与阈值法的水灾风险等级评估方法  

Flood risk degree evaluation method based on data field and threshold method

作　　者：田玉刚[1] 覃东华[1] 杜渊会[1] 李文彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)信息工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《人民长江》2011年第19期11-14,共4页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40801213);中国地质大学中央高校专项资金(CUG090110)

摘　　要：为了对水灾风险进行更准确的评估,根据水灾风险系统的定义以及水灾数据的特点,将水灾风险表达为年平均灾情损失与地形危险性共同作用的结果。针对水灾风险评估数据的不确定性、关联性并考虑地形因子,提出了基于数据场和阈值法的水灾风险等级评估法。以低湿地水灾多发区———洞庭湖地区的风险评估为例,以数据场来描述灾情数据的不确定性及关联性,同时根据研究区水文站点的统计数据,用阈值法来描述地形因子对水灾风险的影响,并对二者进行综合,得到区域水灾综合风险等级区划。结果表明,该方法能直观地对区域水灾风险等级进行了评估与表达,评估结果可靠。In order to evaluate the flood risk more correctly,according to the definition of flood risk system and the characteristics of flood data,the flood risk is regarded as the result of common influence of annual average loss and terrain danger.Flood risk degree evaluation method based on data field and threshold method is proposed in view of the uncertainty and relevance of disaster data and terrain factor.The method was verified with a typical example of the low-lying wetland area,Dongting Lake,where the flood occurred frequently.The uncertainty and relevance of disaster data are expressed by data field and according to the statistical data of hydrological stations in the research area,the influence of terrain factor on the flood risk can be described by the threshold method.The comprehensive risk grade zoning in this area was obtained by the integration of the above two.The result shows that the new method can obtain risk grade zoning more directly with more reliable evaluation results.

关 键 词：水灾风险评估 数据场 阈值 地形因子 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]