基于Monte Carlo模拟技术的液化危险性分析  

Monte Carlo simulation-based liquefaction hazard analysis

作　　者：符圣聪[1] 江静贝[1] 黄世敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国建筑科学研究院,北京100013

出　　处：《地震工程与工程振动》2011年第5期149-156,共8页Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics

基　　金：中国科学研究院基金项目(20040106330730002)

摘　　要：利用Monte Carlo模拟技术考虑了震源和震级的贡献及抗液化阻力的概率分布,将液化安全系数的倒数作为工程需求参数,对土层的液化危险性作概率估计,可以满足基于性态的抗震设计对于不同设防水平工程场地液化安全判定的要求。在文中应用该方法对北京地区若干场址多种设定土层情况分别进行了液化危险性分析,并在所得的大量模拟样本的基础上,引入液化需求锤击数基准值概念和土层埋深水位影响系数,进行统计分析,提出了本地区简化的液化危险性估计方法。验算表明,该简化方法有一定的合理性,也便于一般设防工程使用。作者认为其它地区也可以依此途径建立适合于该地区的液化危险性的估计方法。In the paper,Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to incorporate the contributions from all earthquake sources,all earthquake magnitudes and the probability distribution of resistance against liquefaction.The reciprocal of factor of safety against liquefaction is adopted as a demand parameter for evaluating the probabilistic liquefaction potential,which could satisfy the demands for assessing the liquefaction safety of various seismic fortification levels in performance-based earthquake engineering design.In the paper,the liquefaction hazard analysis for various assumed conditions of soil layers at sites located in Beijing area is performed by the procedure.Based on a great deal of simulation samples from the analysis and introducing the conception of liquefied demand reference value of SPT,and influence coefficient of depth of soil layers and ground water levels,a simplified liquefaction hazard evaluation method is presented.The checking computations indicate that the simplified procedure is rational and also very convenient to engineering practice for estimating probabilistic liquefaction potential.It is believed that the method for estimating liquefaction hazard,which adapts to other seismic regions,could also be established.

关 键 词：MONTE Carlo(蒙特卡罗) 液化危险性 液化安全系数 液化需求锤击数基准值 

分 类 号：TU375.4[建筑科学—结构工程]